建信期货铁矿石日评-20251212

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is under pressure with supply growth expected and weak demand becoming a reality, leading to a renewed weakness in ore prices [10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - Market Performance: On December 11, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated downward, opening with oscillations, then quickly falling, and slightly recovering in the afternoon, closing at 757.0 yuan/ton, down 1.30% [7] - Spot Market: On December 11, the main iron ore outer - market quotes rose 0.3 dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port dropped 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [8] - Technical Analysis: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract is moving downward, with the K and J values turning back down and the D value continuing to decline; the daily MACD indicator's green bar has started to expand [9] - Future Outlook: Supply from Australia and Brazil is picking up and is expected to remain at a relatively high level. Demand is weak as the output of five major steel products has reached a new low this year, and the daily average hot - metal output has dropped to around 2.32 million tons. Steel mills are restocking as needed, with inventory available days at a relatively low level of around 20 days this year. Port inventories are continuously accumulating, reaching a new high since the end of February, and are expected to continue to accumulate slightly [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - BP interest rate cut in its December interest rate decision, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.5% - 3.75%, and is predicted to cut rates by another 25 BP in 2026 [12] - According to the 2026 China Real Estate Market Trend Report, in a neutral scenario, the sales area of new commercial housing in 2026 is expected to decline by 6.2% year - on - year, the new construction area is expected to decline by 8.6%, and real estate investment is expected to decline by 11%. In the medium - to - long term, the average annual sales area of new commercial housing during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to be maintained at 7 - 8 billion square meters, and the real estate market is expected to gradually emerge from the adjustment phase in the middle and late stages of the "14th Five - Year Plan" [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between different grades of ore, the shipping volumes of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, port arrival volumes, domestic mine capacity utilization rates, and other relevant data related to the iron ore and steel industry [14][22][23]