《有色》日报-20251212

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton, with attention paid to the support at 8000 yuan/ton and the impact of coal price changes [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures may remain volatile at a high level. However, considering the weak demand and significant decline in production, the spot price is still under pressure. The newly added delivery brands are beneficial for increasing the deliverable volume and warehouse receipts [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain in a narrow - range high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the improvement progress of scrap aluminum supply and the change in downstream procurement rhythm [3]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate, with the main contract reference range moving down to 2400 - 2700 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum expected to oscillate in the range of 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - The market sentiment is positive, and the fundamentals are strong. Tin prices are expected to remain strong within the year, suggesting a bullish view on tin prices [6]. Zinc - In the short term, the downside space of zinc prices is limited. The export of refined zinc drives the spot market to tighten, boosting domestic zinc prices. The short - term trend of Shanghai zinc prices may be stronger than that of London zinc prices, with the main contract focusing on the support at 23000 - 23200 [8]. Copper - In the short term, the imbalance of global copper supply and inventory drives copper prices to rise rapidly, and price fluctuations may intensify. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction of copper still exists, supporting the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices [10]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 116000 - 120000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [13]. Stainless Steel - In the short term, the stainless - steel market is expected to adjust through oscillation, with the main contract operating range of 12400 - 12800. Attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production cuts and changes in raw material prices [15]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market may remain strongly volatile under the drive of capital sentiment. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production by large manufacturers and the sustainability of off - season demand [18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - For industrial silicon, the spot price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9200 yuan/ton on December 11th compared to the previous day. The basis of various types of industrial silicon decreased to varying degrees [1]. - For polysilicon, the average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52300 yuan/ton on December 11th, and the basis of N - type materials increased by 4.15% [2]. - For aluminum alloy, on December 12th, the price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 21600 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.47% [3]. - For aluminum, on December 12th, the price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 120 yuan/ton to 21890 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.55%. The average price of alumina in various regions decreased to varying degrees [4]. - For tin, on December 12th, the price of SMM 1 tin increased by 3300 yuan/ton to 320000 yuan/ton, with a rise of 1.04% [6]. - For zinc, on December 12th, the price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 40 yuan/ton to 23110 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.17% [8]. - For copper, on December 12th, the price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 965 yuan/ton to 92665 yuan/ton, with a rise of 1.05% [10]. - For nickel, on December 12th, the price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 300 yuan/ton to 118850 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.25% [13]. - For stainless steel, on December 12th, the price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12800 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 50 yuan/ton to 12800 yuan/ton [15]. - For lithium carbonate, on December 12th, the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 800 yuan/ton to 93500 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.86% [18]. Monthly Spread - For industrial silicon, the monthly spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed significantly on December 11th [1]. - For polysilicon, the monthly spreads of contracts such as the main contract, the current month - the first continuous contract, etc. changed on December 11th [2]. - For aluminum alloy, the monthly spreads of contracts such as 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12th [3]. - For aluminum, the monthly spreads of contracts such as AL 2512 - 2601, AL 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12th [4]. - For tin, the monthly spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12th [6]. - For zinc, the monthly spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12th [8]. - For copper, the monthly spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12th [10]. - For nickel, the monthly spreads of contracts such as 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12th [13]. - For stainless steel, the monthly spreads of contracts such as 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12th [15]. - For lithium carbonate, the monthly spreads of contracts such as 2601 - 2602, 2601 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12th [18]. Fundamental Data - For industrial silicon, in November, the national industrial silicon output was 40.17 million tons, a decrease of 5.05 million tons compared to the previous month, with a decline of 11.17%. The开工 rate also decreased to varying degrees [1]. - For polysilicon, in November, the polysilicon output was 11.46 million tons, a decrease of 1.94 million tons compared to the previous month, with a decline of 14.48%. The import and export volumes also changed [2]. - For aluminum alloy, in November, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, a decrease of 3.7 million tons compared to the previous month, with a decline of 5.74%. The开工 rate increased to varying degrees [3]. - For aluminum, in November, the alumina output was 743.94 million tons, a decrease of 34.6 million tons compared to the previous month, with a decline of 4.44%. The output and开工 rate of electrolytic aluminum also changed [4]. - For tin, in October, the tin ore import was 11632 tons, an increase of 2918 tons compared to the previous month, with a rise of 33.49%. The output and import/export volumes of refined tin also changed [6]. - For zinc, in November, the refined zinc output was 59.52 million tons, a decrease of 2.20 million tons compared to the previous month, with a decline of 3.56%. The import and export volumes also changed [8]. - For copper, in November, the electrolytic copper output was 110.31 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons compared to the previous month, with a rise of 1.05%. The import volume decreased [10]. - For nickel, in November, the refined nickel output was 33345 tons, a decrease of 3453 tons compared to the previous month, with a decline of 9.38%. The import volume decreased significantly [13]. - For stainless steel, in November, the output of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China was 178.70 million tons, a decrease of 1.30 million tons compared to the previous month, with a decline of 0.72%. The import and export volumes and inventory also changed [15]. - For lithium carbonate, in November, the lithium carbonate output was 92350 tons, an increase of 3090 tons compared to the previous month, with a rise of 3.35%. The demand and inventory also changed [18]. Inventory Changes - For industrial silicon, the weekly factory - warehouse inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased slightly, and the weekly social inventory increased by 0.30 million tons to 56.10 million tons, with a rise of 0.54% [1]. - For polysilicon, the polysilicon inventory increased by 0.20 million tons to 29.30 million tons, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 2.00 million GW to 23.30 million GW [2]. - For aluminum alloy, the weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.10 million tons to 5.47 million tons, with a decline of 1.08% [3]. - For aluminum, the social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum decreased by 1.20 million tons to 58.40 million tons, with a decline of 2.01% [4]. - For tin, the SHEF weekly inventory increased by 506 tons to 6865 tons, with a rise of 7.96%, and the social inventory increased by 187 tons to 8012 tons, with a rise of 2.39% [6]. - For zinc, the seven - region social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots decreased by 1.21 million tons to 12.82 million tons, with a decline of 8.62% [8]. - For copper, the domestic social inventory increased by 0.41 million tons to 16.30 million tons, with a rise of 2.58%, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 0.90 million tons to 8.89 million tons, with a decline of 9.22% [10]. - For nickel, the SHFE inventory increased by 1726 tons to 40782 tons, with a rise of 4.23%, and the social inventory increased by 1499 tons to 26848 tons, with a rise of 2.71% [13]. - For stainless steel, the 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.34 million tons to 49.54 million tons, with a rise of 0.69% [15]. - For lithium carbonate, in November, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 19674 tons to 64560 tons, with a decline of 23.36% [18].