瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20251212

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market was affected by external factors, with rubber prices first falling and then rising. Imported rubber market offer prices declined, and domestic natural rubber spot offers adjusted with the market. The trading atmosphere was average, and real - deal prices weakened [5]. - The raw material supply in domestic Yunnan has stopped, and prices are stable with some still at low levels. In Hainan, fresh latex dry content has declined due to rain, and overall raw material output is seasonally decreasing. Qingdao port inventories continue to accumulate, but the rate of accumulation has narrowed. Tire companies are restocking as needed, and the overall procurement sentiment has slightly improved [5]. - The production capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies has increased this week, but it is in the seasonal off - season, with slow sales and flexible production control. As finished product inventories continue to rise, some companies may conduct maintenance or reduce production in the future [5]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14950 - 15350, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12000 - 12650 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - Market Review: Affected by external factors, rubber prices first fell and then rose. Imported rubber offer prices dropped, and domestic spot offers adjusted. Trading was average, and real - deal prices weakened [5]. - Market Outlook: Yunnan has stopped production, and Hainan's raw material output is decreasing. Qingdao port inventories are still accumulating, but the rate has slowed. Tire companies' procurement sentiment has slightly improved. Tire production capacity utilization has increased, but sales are slow, and inventories are rising [5]. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14950 - 15350, and the nr2602 contract between 12000 - 12650 [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose with a weekly increase of 1.1%, and the 20 - number rubber main contract price rose with a weekly increase of 2.41% [8]. - As of December 12, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was 15, and the spread between 20 - number rubber 1 - 2 was - 30 [19]. - As of December 12, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 56990 tons, an increase of 11460 tons from last week; 20 - number rubber warehouse receipts were 59573 tons, an increase of 2218 tons from last week [24]. - Spot Market - As of December 11, the state - owned whole latex was reported at 14850 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - As of December 11, the 20 - number rubber basis was 613 yuan/ton, a decrease of 177 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 705 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from last week [34]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Upstream - As of December 12, the field glue in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 55.25 (+0.25) Thai baht/kg; cup glue was 49.45 (+1.11) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 53.8 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10.6 US dollars/ton from last week [37]. - As of December 11, the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 14300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; Yunnan was in the off - season [40]. - Import - In October 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 51.08 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 522.81 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [43]. - Inventory - As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 48.87 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.72 tons or 1.49%. Bonded area inventory was 7.39 tons, an increase of 2.08%; general trade inventory was 41.48 tons, an increase of 1.38% [46]. - Downstream - As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points [49]. - In October 2025, China's tire exports were 65.31 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05 and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October, the cumulative export volume was 704.38 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68% [52]. - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 6% and a year - on - year increase of about 46%. From January to November, the cumulative sales exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [55]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis There is no content about option market analysis in the report.