硅锰市场周报：成本支撑底部震荡，供需偏弱库存高位-20251212

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the silicon-manganese market is currently experiencing bottom - level oscillations supported by costs, with weak supply - demand dynamics and high inventory. The manganese silicon主力2603 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5550 - 5900. The overall production will remain stable, while the demand for crude steel will continue to decline, and the alloy is likely to remain in a loss - making state [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Macro Aspect: In 2026, the national new - built commercial housing sales area is expected to decline by 6.2% year - on - year, the new - start area to decline by 8.6%, and real estate investment to decline by 11%. The core policy directions for major coal - producing areas include stable production and supply, capacity continuation, and enhanced clean and efficient coal utilization [7]. - Overseas Aspect: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points during the December 9 - 10 meeting, setting the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75%. Most global investment banks predict a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut in 2026, mainly in the first half of the year [7]. - Supply - Demand Aspect: Inventory has rebounded rapidly, production has slightly declined from a high level, and inventory has increased for 11 consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 13000 tons, and the demand for hot metal has seasonally declined. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 320 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 420 yuan/ton. HeSteel Group's first - round inquiry price for silicon - manganese in December is 5700 yuan/ton [7]. - Technical Aspect: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: In December, the production in southern regions may further decline, while northern regions remain relatively stable. Inner Mongolia has new production capacity and production conversion, and overall production will be stable. Ningxia may have maintenance in December due to cost and hedging pressure, but the reduction in production is expected to be small. The national crude - steel production reduction policy will continue in 2025, and the alloy is likely to remain in a loss - making state [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of December 12, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 617000 lots, a decrease of 15700 lots from the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract spread was 54, an increase of 4 points. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipts increased by 4025 to 25232, and the spread between manganese - silicon and silicon - iron active contracts decreased by 24 points to 260 [13][17]. - Spot Market: As of December 12, the silicon - manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period. The basis was - 238 yuan/ton, a decrease of 76 points [25]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - Industry: The national capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 36.85%, an increase of 0.14%. The daily average production was 27035 tons, an increase of 185 tons. The weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel types decreased by 3.26% to 112787 tons, and the weekly supply increased by 0.69% to 189245 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises increased by 5500 tons to 381000 tons [28][33]. - Upstream: As of December 10, the price of South African and Australian manganese ore remained unchanged. As of December 8, the electricity price in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged, while that in Ningxia increased by 2.53%. As of December 5, the total manganese - ore inventory was 4.513 million tons, an increase of 2.97%. The arrival of South African and Gabonese manganese ore increased, while that of Australian and Ghanaian manganese ore decreased. The silicon - manganese spot production cost in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased, and the spot profit in the northern region decreased [38][44][50]. - Downstream: The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills was 2.292 million tons, a decrease of 31000 tons from the previous week and 32700 tons from the same period last year. HeSteel Group's first - round inquiry price for silicon - manganese in December was 5700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton from November [54].