Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Corn: This week, corn futures prices dropped from their high levels. The international corn market is under pressure due to the harvest and export season in the US and relatively loose supply - demand globally. However, the reduction of the US corn's ending - stock forecast by USDA supports the price. In the domestic market, the increased purchase by reserve warehouses in the Northeast provides support, but high prices limit procurement and rumors lead to increased supply, causing price adjustments. In the North China and Huang - Huai regions, prices are fluctuating slightly. The short - term price is volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - Corn Starch: Dalian corn starch futures closed lower in a volatile manner. With sufficient raw material supply and increasing industry operating rates, supply pressure grows. But high demand from downstream industries and reduced inventory support the market. Affected by the decline in corn prices, starch prices also fell, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - long Key Points Summary - Corn: The closing price of the main 2601 contract was 2233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton from last week. The international market has supply pressure, while the domestic Northeast's reserve purchase supports the price. High prices limit procurement, and rumors increase supply, leading to a high - level price adjustment [6]. - Corn Starch: The closing price of the main 2603 contract was 2521 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton from last week. Abundant raw materials and increased operating rates pressure supply, but strong downstream demand and reduced inventory are positive factors [8]. 2. Futures and Cash Market - Futures Price and Position Changes: This week, the 3 - month contracts of both corn and corn starch futures dropped from high levels. The total position of the corn 3 - month contract was 937,207 lots, an increase of 127,367 lots from last week, and that of the corn starch 3 - month contract was 109,010 lots, an increase of 12,178 lots [14]. - Top 20 Net Position Changes: The net short position of the top 20 in corn futures decreased from - 188,896 last week to - 111,571 this week, and that of corn starch futures decreased from - 44,791 to - 37,848 [20]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 57,355 lots, and those of corn starch were 2,500 lots [26]. - Spot Price and Basis: As of December 11, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2356.27 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 3 - month contract and the spot average price was + 123 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2700 yuan/ton and in Shandong was 2800 yuan/ton, and the basis between the 3 - month contract and the Jilin Changchun spot was 179 yuan/ton [31][35]. - Futures Inter - month Spread: The 3 - 5 spread of corn was - 33 yuan/ton, and that of starch was - 56 yuan/ton, both at medium levels compared to the same period [41]. - Futures Spread between Corn and Starch: The spread between the 3 - month starch and corn contracts was 288 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 466 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton from last week [50]. - Substitute Spread: As of December 11, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2515.72 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2356.27 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 159.45 yuan/ton. In the 50th week of 2025, the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch narrowed, with an average spread of 725 yuan/ton, a reduction of 36 yuan/ton from last week [55]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - Corn - Supply: As of December 5, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 6.6 tons, a decrease of 11.5 tons from last week, and the foreign trade inventory was 24.9 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 153.1 tons, an increase of 16.2 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 80.8 tons, an increase of 27.3 tons. The total sales progress of domestic corn was 40% as of December 11, an increase of 4% from last week. In October 2025, China's corn imports were 35.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.06%. As of December 11, the average inventory of feed enterprises was 29.53 days, an increase of 0.86 days from last week [45][57][61][65]. - Corn - Demand: At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. As of the end of October, the inventory of breeding sows was 30.9 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12%. As of December 5, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig breeding profit was - 167.69 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets was - 259.39 yuan/head. As of December 11, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 54 yuan/ton, and the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 491 yuan/ton, - 726 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 286 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [69][73][78]. - Corn Starch - Supply: As of December 10, 2025, the corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 294 tons, an increase of 6.75%. From December 4 to 10, the national corn processing volume was 63.57 tons, an increase of 0.89 tons from last week, and the corn starch output was 33.11 tons, an increase of 0.62 tons. The operating rate was 62.84%, an increase of 1.18%. The starch inventory was 104.9 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons from last week [82][86]. 4. Option Market Analysis - As of December 12, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the corn main 2603 contract was 10.56%, a decrease of 2.23% from last week's 12.79%, and it was at a medium level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [89].
玉米类市场周报：政策性拍卖发酵，玉米期价高位回落-20251212
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-12 09:13