焦炭市场周报：二轮提降&原料下行，焦炭跟随成本下行-20251212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, the Political Bureau meeting emphasized ensuring the supply of important livelihood commodities, and coal policies focus on stable production, supply, and clean utilization [7]. - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2025, and most investment banks predict a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut in 2026, mainly in the first half [7]. - In terms of supply and demand, iron - water production decreased by 3.10 tons this period, and coke inventory is moderately weak. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 44 yuan/ton. The second round of spot price cuts has occurred [7]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the coke main contract 2601 is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - Suggestion: The macro - environment is weak, the short - term market sentiment of coking coal is weakening. With high Mongolian customs - clearance vehicle numbers at the end of the year, coking coal faces short - term supply - demand and delivery pressure. Steel production will continue to decline, and downstream inventory - replenishment willingness is low. Coking coal is yielding profits to coke, but coke's profit improvement is limited. The 2605 coking coal futures contract should focus on the 1000 support level, and the 2601 coke futures contract should focus on the 1450 - 1500 support level [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Macro: The Political Bureau meeting focused on livelihood commodity supply and coal policies. The Fed cut interest rates, and further cuts are expected in 2026 [7]. - Supply and demand: Iron - water production decreased, coke inventory is moderately weak, and the second - round price cut of coke spot occurred. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 44 yuan/ton [7]. - Technology: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract 2601 is bearish [7]. - Strategy: The macro - environment is weak, coking coal faces pressure, and downstream demand is low. Focus on the support levels of coking coal and coke futures contracts [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Market - As of December 12, the coke futures contract position was 46,600 lots, a net increase of 1,527 lots. The 5 - 1 contract month - spread was 153.0, a net increase of 4 points [9][11]. - As of December 12, the registered coke warehouse - receipt volume was 2,070 lots, unchanged from the previous period. The futures main - contract screw - to - coke ratio was 2.07, a net increase of 0.08 points [14][16]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - As of December 11, 2025, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port was 1,580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton. As of December 12, the coke basis was 88.5 yuan, a net increase of 160 points [24]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Mines: The utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines decreased by 0.3% to 85.3%. The daily raw - coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 189.8 tons, and the raw - coal inventory increased by 0.8 tons to 472.4 tons. The daily clean - coal output decreased by 0.4 tons to 75.0 tons, and the clean - coal inventory increased by 8.3 tons to 255.3 tons [28]. - Coal - washing plants: The utilization rate of 314 independent coal - washing plants increased by 1.7% to 38.2%. The daily clean - coal output increased by 0.8 tons to 27.9 tons, and the clean - coal inventory increased by 11.0 tons to 332.4 tons [28]. - Coking plants: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants decreased by 0.72% to 71.92%. The daily coke output decreased by 0.5 tons to 50.33 tons. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 44 yuan/ton, with different regional profits [32]. - Iron - making: The daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.10 tons to 229.2 tons. As of December 12, 2025, the steel - mill coke inventory increased by 10.03 tons to 635.28 tons, and the available days increased by 0.37 days to 11.66 days [36]. - Inventory: As of December 12, 2025, the total coke inventory increased by 18.35 tons to 866.50 tons. The inventory of 230 independent coking plants increased by 5.42 tons to 50.11 tons. The port inventory increased by 2.80 tons, and the steel - mill inventory increased by 10.03 tons [41][45]. - Exports: From January to October, the cumulative coke export was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.90%. The cumulative steel export was 97.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.60% [49]. - Real estate: In October 2025, the second - hand housing price index of 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.70% month - on - month. From January to October, the cumulative new housing construction area was 490.6139 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.80% [52].