Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined, with a weekly drop of approximately 0.36%. The new sugar - making season is entering its peak, supply is increasing, and the spot price is weakening. Without positive drivers, the sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the future [5]. - Future factors to watch include the domestic new sugar crushing situation and demand [6]. 3) Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.36% [5]. - Market Outlook: As of the week ending December 10, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased to 44 from 53 the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped dropped to 1.5131 million tons from 1.826 million tons, a 17.14% decline. In the domestic market, the prices of processed sugar and beet sugar are relatively stable. With the arrival of new sugar from Guangxi in the sales areas and poor market transactions, competition among the three sugar sources has a negative impact on prices. As of now, 66 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing in the 25/26 season, 5 fewer than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 537,500 tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons year - on - year. Four more mills are expected to start next week. In Yunnan, 26 sugar mills have started crushing, 9 more than last year, and more than half of the mills have begun operations [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - US Sugar Futures: The price of the US Sugar March contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.27%. As of November 4, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 195,528 lots, an increase of 28,109 lots from the previous week. Long positions were 165,775 lots, up 1,384 lots, and short positions were 361,303 lots, an increase of 29,493 lots [12]. - International Raw Sugar Spot Price: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 14.59 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.22 cents per pound from last week [16]. - Zhengzhou Sugar Futures: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract declined this week, with a weekly drop of approximately 0.36%. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 63,969 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 611 [20][27]. - Zhengzhou Sugar Futures Spread: The spread between the 5 - 9 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 22 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis was + 246 yuan/ton [32]. - Spot Market Price: As of December 12, the new sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,460 yuan/ton, and the sugar price in Nanning was 5,400 yuan/ton [38]. - Imported Sugar Cost and Profit: This week, the estimated profit for in - quota Brazilian sugar was 1,380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit for out - of - quota Brazilian sugar was 128 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan/ton. The estimated profit for in - quota Thai sugar was 1,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan/ton; the estimated profit for out - of - quota Thai sugar was 64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton [44]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply Side - Production Increase: As of the end of October 2025, the total sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season in China was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [48]. - Supply Side - Industrial Inventory: As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 116,230 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45,000 tons or 27.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 6,010 tons or 5.45% [51]. - Supply Side - Imported Sugar Quantity: In October 2025, China's sugar imports were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.62% and a month - on - month increase of 200,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 3.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.12% [55]. - Demand Side - Sugar Sales Rate: As of the end of October 2025, the sugar mills in the 2024/25 sugar - making season had all stopped crushing. The total sugar production in this season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [61]. - Demand Side - Finished Sugar and Soft Drink Production: In October 2025, China's monthly finished sugar production was 883,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.1%. The monthly soft drink production was 10.962 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3% [65]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Markets - Option Market: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week is presented, but no specific value is mentioned in the text [66]. - Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry: A chart of the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but no specific analysis or value is given in the text [70].
白糖市场周报-20251212
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-12 09:12