Report Summary 1. Report Information - Industry: Agricultural products - Date: December 12, 2025 - Researcher Team: Yulanlan, Linzhenlei, Wanghaifeng, Hongchenliang, Liuyouran [3][4] 2. Core Views - Oils and Fats: The three major oils are showing divergent trends. Palm oil lacks driving forces, continuing its weak and volatile trend and is expected to continue to bottom out, with a focus on short - term short positions; rapeseed oil is policy - driven, and currently, with inventory depletion and tight spot supply, it is advisable to take light long positions; soybean oil is fluctuating in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 yuan/ton, with limited upside due to high inventory [9]. - Hogs: In terms of spot, supply and demand are both increasing, but the enthusiasm for second - round fattening is weak, and prices may fluctuate slightly upward. In the futures market, the supply of hogs is expected to increase slightly, but there is double supply pressure from second - round fattening and capacity release, putting pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. However, due to the large price decline compared to last year and the increase in the northern epidemic, the bottom - shock frequency has increased. It is recommended that futures investors wait and see, and breeding enterprises reduce hedging short positions as they sell [103]. - Corn: On the supply side, the willingness of farmers in the Northeast to hold back sales has decreased, and the sales progress is over 30%, with port inventories slightly increasing. On the demand side, feed demand is good, and the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has rebounded. Spot prices may fluctuate, while futures prices may fluctuate upward, especially for contracts after 2605. It is recommended that spot enterprises replenish inventory appropriately, and futures investors hold long positions [144][145][146]. - Soybean Meal: The short - term rebound of soybean meal is short - cycle, and considering the abundant supply in most areas and the lack of obvious external bullish factors, it is advisable to try short positions on rallies in the short - term, and expect narrow - range fluctuations in the medium - term [151]. - Eggs: Spot prices are expected to fluctuate slightly. Futures prices of near - term contracts are dominated by bears, and new short positions can focus on the 02 contract. Long positions can focus on entering the market for far - term contracts after the correction [191]. - Cotton: In the short - term, cotton prices will maintain a relatively strong trend, and the pressure level will gradually move upward. The supply side has limited changes, and the demand side has improved slightly, with downstream spinning mills having acceptable profits and cash flows [215]. - Sugar: The raw sugar index is in a sideways shock, and the Zhengzhou sugar index has fallen significantly. Indian and Thai production increases are suppressing sugar prices. In the domestic market, new sugar is on the market in large quantities, with increased production, import volume, and weak consumption. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in supply and demand and policies [241][242]. 3. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - Market Review: Palm oil is in a volatile adjustment, with Malaysian inventories reaching a six - and - a - half - year high in November. Soybean oil futures are in a narrow - range shock, and rapeseed oil has large fluctuations [8][9]. - Core Points: - Domestic Spot Changes: As of December 12, 2025, the price of East China Grade I soybean oil remained unchanged at 8,600 yuan/ton, the price of East China Grade III rapeseed oil increased by 30 yuan/ton to 10,020 yuan/ton, and the price of South China 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 160 yuan/ton to 8,580 yuan/ton [10]. - Domestic Three - Major Oils Inventory: As of the end of the 49th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.4294 million tons, a weekly decrease of 16,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.06% [22]. - Domestic Oilseeds Supply: The soybean processing volume and operating rate of domestic oil mills decreased this week. The inventory of imported soybeans in ports increased slightly, and it is estimated that the inventory will decrease next week. The operating rate of imported rapeseed processing enterprises was almost zero, and the inventory of imported rapeseed in ports remained unchanged [25][26][33]. - Palm Oil Dynamics: The production and export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in November, and the inventory increased. It is expected that the inventory will increase in December. The production of Brazilian palm oil is expected to break through 20 million tons for the first time this year [35][36]. - CFTC Positions: Speculative funds continued to go long on Chicago soybeans and short on Chicago soybean oil in early November [48]. Hogs - Market Review: Spot prices first weakened slightly and then strengthened. Futures prices of the main contract LH2603 fluctuated upward after rising and falling [50][51]. - Fundamental Overview: - Long - Term Supply: The inventory of breeding sows is relatively stable, and the market's enthusiasm for replenishing binary sows is average. According to different data sources, the theoretical pig slaughter volume will show different trends in the future [60][61][62]. - Medium - Term Supply: The price of piglets has increased slightly, and the inventory of sample enterprises' piglets decreased in November. The theoretical pig slaughter volume will increase slightly in the medium - term [74]. - Short - Term Supply: The inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises decreased in November. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased, and the enthusiasm for second - round fattening decreased in November [76][77]. - Current Supply: The actual slaughter volume of sample enterprises in November was 26.49 million heads, and the planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64%. The average slaughter weight decreased slightly this week [84][85]. - Import Supply: In October, China's pork imports were 70,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons [90]. - Second - Round Fattening Demand: The enthusiasm for second - round fattening replenishment is generally low, and the cost has increased [92][94]. - Slaughter Demand: The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises increased this week, and the slaughter volume in October increased significantly year - on - year [97]. Corn - Market Review: Spot prices generally moved upward. Futures prices of the main contract 2603 fell by 1.5% [105]. - Fundamental Analysis: - Corn Supply: The sales progress has accelerated, and the overall is faster than the same period last year. The inventory in northern ports decreased by 110,000 tons, and the inventory in southern ports decreased by 202,000 tons [108][109][111]. - Domestic Substitutes: Wheat prices fluctuated weakly this week, and the price difference between wheat and corn is 205 yuan/ton [112]. - Import Substitute Grains: In October, the import of most grains increased year - on - year. The import of corn was 360,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.1%. The import of other grains showed different trends [113]. - Feed Demand: In October, the national industrial feed production was 29.07 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. The inventory days of feed enterprises increased [128][134]. - Deep - Processing Demand: The operating rate of corn starch enterprises increased slightly, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased [137][138]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, China's corn production is expected to increase by 1.72% to 300 million tons, and consumption is expected to increase by 116 tons to 299.02 million tons [141][143]. Soybean Meal - Weekly Review and Operation Suggestion: Spot prices rose slightly. Futures prices of US soybeans fell after a high - level shock, and domestic soybean meal was stronger than the external market. It is advisable to try short positions on rallies in the short - term and expect narrow - range fluctuations in the medium - term [149][150][151]. - Core Points: - Soybean Planting: The USDA December report made few changes to US soybeans. The planting area decreased, the yield per unit increased, and the ending inventory decreased slightly. The estimated production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans is high. The planting progress in Brazil is normal, and the weather is favorable; the planting in Argentina is in the middle and late stages, and the weather is relatively dry [152][153][154]. - US Soybean Exports: As of the week of November 13, the export shipments and net sales of US soybeans decreased year - on - year. China's procurement of US soybeans has not yet reached the expected level [162]. - Domestic Soybean Import and Pressing: The pressing profit is negative. The operating rate and pressing volume are expected to decline. The import of soybeans in November decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year, and the port inventory is expected to decrease [167][168]. - Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory: The inventory of domestic main oil mills decreased this week. The high - volume transactions in the past were mainly due to hedging against trade uncertainties [177]. - Basis and Inter - Month Spread: The basis of the 01 contract is at a relatively low level, and the 1 - 5 spread has widened [184]. - Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts: As of December 11, 2025, the number of domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts was 23,830 lots, at a relatively high level in the same period of history [188]. Eggs - Weekly Review and Operation Suggestion: Spot prices stabilized and rebounded slightly. Futures prices were relatively weak, especially for the near - term 01 contract. New short positions can focus on the 02 contract, and long positions can focus on far - term contracts [191]. - Data Summary: - Inventory and Replenishment: The inventory of laying hens is at a high level in the same period of history, and the replenishment momentum is weak. The proportion of different - age laying hens and egg sizes has changed [192][193][194]. - Cost, Income, and Breeding Profit: Egg prices increased slightly, feed costs remained stable, and breeding profits were at a very low level [198]. - Culled Hens: The number of culled hens decreased, the culling age advanced, and the price was at a low level in the same period of history [202]. - Demand, Inventory, and Hog Prices: Egg sales are at a low level in the same period of history, inventory is slightly higher than normal, and hog prices are at a low level in the same period of history [206]. Cotton - Weekly Review and Operation Suggestion: The USDA monthly report was slightly bearish, and Zhengzhou cotton prices moved upward after adjustment. The spot market was warming up, and the downstream market was generally trading [213][214]. - Core Points: - Main Cotton - Producing Countries: The USDA December report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand situation. The beginning inventory increased slightly, the production and consumption decreased slightly, and the ending inventory increased slightly [216]. - US Cotton Exports: As of the week of November 13, the net signing and shipment of US cotton decreased week - on - week, and the cumulative signing decreased year - on - year, while the cumulative shipment increased year - on - year [223]. - Textile Enterprises Operation: The cotton inventory and yarn inventory of spinning enterprises increased slightly, and the inventory of weaving enterprises remained stable. The load indexes of yarn and grey cloth remained unchanged [225]. - Basis and Inter - Month Spread: The basis of the 01 contract decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased [236]. - CFTC Positions and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts: As of November 10, the non - commercial net long position of cotton decreased. As of December 11, the number of domestic cotton registered warehouse receipts increased [238]. Sugar - Market Review: The raw sugar index was in a sideways shock, and the Zhengzhou sugar index fell significantly. Domestic spot prices generally decreased, and the basis and inter - month spread changed [241][242][244]. - Core Points: - Brazilian Sugar Production: In the first half of November 2025, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year, and the proportion of sugar production decreased. The cumulative production and ethanol sales in the current season showed different trends [249][250]. - Price Relationship and Import Profit: The ethanol - to - sugar price in Brazil is higher than the ICE raw sugar price. The inter - month spread of London white sugar and New York raw sugar is at a level that causes a slight loss for processing enterprises. The import processing profit has declined [254][256][257]. - CFTC Positions: As of November 10, 2025, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar increased [257].
建信期货农产品周度报告-20251212
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-12-12 12:57