黑色金属周报-20251212

Report Information - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Variety Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [4] Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly. Suggest considering selling hedging or investment strategies on rebounds [8][33][37]. - The coke and coking coal markets are under pressure from both supply guarantee and imports, with prices likely to continue their downward trend. Investors should prepare for prices to return to levels before mid - July [10][55]. - The iron ore market has an expected increase in supply and weak demand, with prices expected to continue weak and fluctuate. Consider shorting coke and coking coal while going long on iron ore for arbitrage [13][83][84]. Summary by Directory Steel Fundamental Analysis - Price: The prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets declined significantly in the week of December 12 [14]. - Blast Furnace and Crude Steel: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, and the average daily crude steel output of key enterprises decreased in late November [15]. - Hot Metal and EAF: The national average daily hot metal output decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, and the capacity utilization rate of 87 independent EAF steel mills declined [19]. - Output and Inventory: The weekly output of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, the rebar inventory in major steel mills decreased, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased [20]. - Social Inventory: The social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil continued to decline [23]. - Downstream Demand: The real estate investment decreased year - on - year, while the output of automobiles, metal - cutting machine tools, and some home appliances increased [23]. - Apparent Consumption and Margin: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the rebar 2605 contract margin showed an expanded loss [27]. - Spot Rebar Margin: The long - process rebar spot margin loss expanded, while the short - process margin turned profitable and increased slightly [32]. Conclusion and Suggestions - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Expected to fluctuate weakly. Consider selling hedging or investment strategies on rebounds. Monitor the impact on steel mill profits, port iron ore inventory, and the decline cycle of the coke and coking coal markets [33][37]. - Basis: The rebar basis is expected to narrow with a range of 120 - 240 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil basis is expected to fluctuate in the range of - 40 - 50 yuan/ton [37][39]. Coke and Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis - Price: The prices of major coke and coking coal spot markets declined [40]. - Output and Capacity Utilization: The daily output and capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants and steel enterprises' coke production decreased after rising [40][41]. - Inventory and Profit: The port coke inventory decreased, while the steel enterprises' and coking plants' coke inventories increased. Independent coking enterprises had continuous profits [45]. - Mine Output and Inventory: The daily output and开工 rate of 523 sample mines decreased, and the inventory increased [46]. - Import and Inventory: The import of coking coal decreased from January to October, and the port and coking plants' coking coal inventories increased, while the steel enterprises' inventory decreased [50]. - Output: The national coal and coke production increased from January to October [50]. Conclusion and Suggestions - Expected to continue the downward trend. Investors should prepare for prices to return to levels before mid - July [55]. Iron Ore Fundamental Analysis - Price and Spread: The 62% Platts iron ore index and the price of 61.5% PB powder in Qingdao Port decreased. The spreads between different ore grades changed [56]. - Inventory and Unloading: The port iron ore inventory increased to a new high since April 2022, and the unloading volume increased. The steel mills' inventory days increased [60]. - Shipping and Arrival: The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil changed, and the arrival volume decreased. It is expected that the shipping volume will increase later [64]. - Domestic Output and Operation: The domestic iron ore output decreased from January to October, and the capacity utilization rate of mines decreased [68]. - Port Volume and Cost: The 5 - day moving average of port iron ore trading volume decreased, and the average hot metal cost remained unchanged [70]. - Hot Metal Output and Utilization: The average daily hot metal output decreased to a new low since March, and the demand for iron ore is expected to remain weak [72]. - Steel Output and Inventory: The actual weekly output of five major steel products decreased, the consumption decreased, the steel mill inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased [74][75]. - Transportation Cost: The main iron ore freight rates mostly decreased, and the Baltic Dry Index declined [77]. Conclusion and Suggestions - Iron Ore: Supply is expected to increase, demand remains weak, and prices are expected to continue weak and fluctuate. Consider shorting coke and coking coal while going long on iron ore for arbitrage [83][84]. - Basis: The basis between Qingdao Port iron ore spot and the 2605 contract is expected to narrow, with a range of 50 - 110 yuan/ton [84].