宏观贵金属周报-20251212

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the macro - environment and the precious metals market. The Fed's dovish rate cut boosts the market, and the precious metals market is influenced by multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, economic conditions, and monetary policies. The report expects precious metal prices to continue to be strong in 2026 [3][33]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro - Environment Review 3.1.1 Economy - China's exports show strong resilience. In November 2025, exports were $3303.5 billion, up 5.9% year - on - year; imports were $2186.7 billion, up 1.9% year - on - year. From January to November 2025, cumulative exports were $34147.3 billion, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.4%, and the cumulative trade surplus was $10758.5 billion, up 21.2% year - on - year [4]. - In November 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year but increased by 0.1% month - on - month [6][7]. - Overseas, in the first two months of fiscal year 2026 (October - November 2025), the US fiscal deficit decreased by 26.7% year - on - year. The US job market shows low liquidity [8]. 3.1.2 Focus - From December 9 - 10, 2025, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25BP to 3.5 - 3.75%. The Fed also decided to buy short - term Treasury bonds as needed [9]. - The Fed expects the US economy to grow at a slower pace, with employment and inflation under pressure. The market believes the Fed may continue to cut rates in the medium - term [12][19]. 3.1.3 Policy - The Central Economic Work Conference held from December 10 - 11, 2025, set the policy tone for 2026, including implementing more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies and focusing on eight key tasks [22][23][24]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Treasury Yields and US Dollar Exchange Rate - The US dollar index is expected to oscillate and recover in 2026, with a core fluctuation range of 96 - 108. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be range - bound, with a core fluctuation range of 6.92 - 7.25 against the US dollar [25][26]. - In 2026, the US Treasury yield curve is expected to continue to steepen, with short - term rates falling and medium - and long - term rates oscillating in the range of 3.8% - 4.5% for the 10 - year Treasury yield [28]. 3.2.2 Market Investment Sentiment - As of December 11, 2025, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1050.8 tons, 22.2% higher than the May 2024 low, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 16083 tons, 20.6% higher than the May 2024 low [30]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals Review and Outlook - In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade and currency system support the bull market in gold. In the medium - term, economic risks make gold prices strong. In the short - term, gold and silver prices have fluctuated recently [33]. - In 2026, London gold is expected to reach $4800 - 5000 per ounce, London silver to $73.5 - 77.5 per ounce, London platinum to $2000 - 2100 per ounce, and London palladium to $1620 - 1700 per ounce [36]. 3.2.4 Precious Metals - Related Charts - The correlation between gold and the US dollar index, US Treasury real yields, and silver has weakened, while the negative correlation between gold and crude oil has strengthened [37][38].