有色金属周报-20251212

1. Report General Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 2. Ratings - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 3. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate, supported by fundamentals but affected by the expected interest rate hike of the Bank of Japan [8]. - The current industrial fundamentals of lithium carbonate are healthy, but the momentum to drive lithium prices up is insufficient, so it is cautiously bullish in the short term [25]. - Aluminum prices are likely to rise easily and fall hard in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips and be cautious about chasing up [42]. - Nickel prices are expected to continue to be weak under the pressure of oversupply [76]. - Zinc prices will maintain a strong short - term pattern but may enter a high - level shock later [102]. 4. Summary by Metals Copper 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, SHFE copper fluctuated between 91,450 and 94,570, with a total position of 646,872 lots. The spot premium turned to a discount of 20 on Friday. The copper price hit a record high due to the Fed's interest rate cut, China's policy expectations, and supply - demand support. LME copper ranged from 11,585 to 11,952, and the net long position of funds increased [7]. - It is recommended to note that although the supply of refined copper is under limited pressure and the demand acceptance has marginally improved, the expected interest rate hike of the Bank of Japan may suppress market sentiment. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The import TC of copper concentrate continued to decline, while the processing fees of cold materials increased. The smelting loss of spot copper concentrate expanded, but the by - product sulfuric acid revenue rose. SMM expects the electrolytic copper output in December to increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month. The import window of refined copper is closed [11][12][14]. - Demand: The weekly operating rate of scrap copper rods increased by 9.01 percentage points to 18.16%, while that of refined copper rods decreased by 2.82% to 64.54%. The operating rates of wire and cable and enameled wire also declined [15][16][17]. - Spot: Domestic social inventory increased slightly, and bonded area inventory decreased. LME + COMEX market inventory increased [18]. Lithium Carbonate 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the futures price of lithium carbonate rose, with the main contract ranging from 91,120 to 101,620. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was relatively stable. The inventory decreased by 2,133 tons to 111,469 tons, and the cost support increased [24]. - It is recommended to note that the supply pressure is easing, and the demand growth rate of the terminal field is slowing down. The current industrial fundamentals are healthy, but the power to drive lithium prices up is insufficient, so it is cautiously bullish in the short term [25]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The supply pressure of lithium carbonate is easing. It is expected that the output in December will decrease by 1% month - on - month. The prices of lithium mines generally rose, and the cash costs of producing lithium carbonate from lithium mica and lithium spodumene increased [27][28]. - Demand: The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and cobalt acid lithium all rose. The prices of power cells fluctuated, and the production of power cells slowed down at the end of the year, while the production of energy - storage cells remained good [29][30][31]. - Spot: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was at a low level, and the spot discount to the main contract deepened significantly. The inventory continued to decline [33][34]. Aluminum 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, SHFE aluminum fluctuated at a high level, with the main contract ranging from 21,790 to 22,355. Alumina continued to fall, and the smelting profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry continued to rise. The industry was in a state of destocking, and the import window was closed [40]. - It is recommended to note that the price of domestic bauxite is stable, alumina is still falling, and the demand for aluminum processing is weak. In the short term, aluminum prices are likely to rise easily and fall hard, and it is recommended to buy on dips and be cautious about chasing up [42]. 2. Fundamental Changes - Bauxite: The price of domestic bauxite remained stable, and the supply of imported bauxite was well - supported. The CIF price of Guinea bauxite decreased by 0.5 to 70.5 US dollars per wet ton [43]. - Alumina: The futures price hit a new low, and the import window was open. The weighted index of Shanghai Non - ferrous decreased by 0.59% week - on - week. The operating rate of domestic alumina plants was at a high level [46][47]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The price of alumina continued to fall, and the average profit of the industry increased to 5,715.47 yuan per ton [52]. - Exports and Imports: In October, the export of aluminum cables increased, and the import window of aluminum ingots was closed [61]. - Processing Enterprises: The weekly operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 61.8%, and the demand was weak [65]. - Inventory: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods continued to decline [69]. Nickel 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, nickel prices fell unilaterally. SHFE nickel and LME nickel both declined, and the import window was closed. The domestic social inventory increased by 2,122 tons to 58,970 tons, and the overall inventory pressure was significant [72]. - It is recommended to note that the price of Indonesian nickel ore fell, the price of nickel iron rebounded slightly, and the price of nickel salts continued to fall. The inventory continued to increase, and nickel prices are expected to remain weak [75][76]. 2. Fundamental Changes - Nickel Ore: The prices of Philippine and Indonesian nickel ores were temporarily stable, but the price of Indonesian nickel ore was loose. In October, the import of nickel ore decreased significantly [77]. - Nickel Iron: In November, the production of nickel pig iron decreased. In December, the production is expected to continue to decline both year - on - year and month - on - month. In October, the import of nickel iron decreased slightly but remained at a high level [85][86][89]. - Electrolytic Nickel: The production capacity of electrowon nickel was rapidly released. In November, the production of refined nickel decreased [90]. - Nickel Sulfate: This week, the price of nickel salts continued to fall. In November, the production of nickel sulfate increased [93][96]. - Stainless Steel: This week, the inventory of the stainless - steel market increased slightly, and the actual demand did not improve significantly [99]. Zinc 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, SHFE zinc rose to repair the gap in April and then fluctuated at a high level. The spot premium declined, and the processing fees of zinc ore continued to fall. The domestic social inventory decreased by 7,800 tons to 128,200 tons, and the LME zinc inventory increased [101]. - It is recommended to note that under the joint drive of macro - benefits and fundamental shortages, zinc prices will maintain a strong short - term pattern but may enter a high - level shock later. Attention should be paid to the actual production reduction of smelters, inventory destocking rhythm, and macro - sentiment changes [102]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The processing fees of zinc ore continued to decline, and the production of refined zinc in November may have declined slightly. In December, the production is expected to continue to fall. The overseas LME0 - 3 Back structure remains high, and the export window is open [109][110]. - Demand: The operating rate of galvanizing increased by 0.33% to 58.39%, while the operating rates of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide decreased. The overall demand in the fourth quarter is weak [111][112]. - Spot: Domestic social inventory decreased by 7,800 tons to 128,200 tons, and LME zinc inventory increased by 2,600 tons to 60,350 tons [113].