金融期货周报-20251212

Report Information - Report Title: Financial Futures Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Views - The A-share market has shown an overall trend of "short-term correction followed by relatively strong performance, significant decline after external shocks and then a rebound" this year. In the short term, policy expectations are weak, and as the year-end approaches, institutional demand for profit-taking and portfolio adjustment increases, leading to an overall increase in risk aversion. The index lacks guidance and shows an oscillating and volatile state [7][8][13] - The bond market is significantly adjusted, and the risk of a bear market should be limited. It will continue to maintain a low-interest rate environment next year. However, the policy layer's mention of cross-cycle adjustment may indicate that loose policies are difficult to implement in the short term, increasing short-term market volatility. If market sentiment improves in the future, futures have a certain room for a supplementary increase [82] - The shipping market's price increase expectations are fermented again, and the EC rebounds and recovers. The market may conduct intense games around the pre-Spring Festival shipping peak. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the 02-04 contract [91][104] Summary by Directory Stock Index - Market Review: The A-share market has shown a trend of "short-term correction followed by relatively strong performance, significant decline after external shocks and then a rebound" this year. In December 8 - December 12, the A-share market oscillated, with small and medium-cap stocks performing more strongly. The growth sector led the rise, while other style sectors recorded declines. Looking ahead, the Fed's interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion, along with domestic policy support, are beneficial for the capital market. However, short-term policy expectations are weak, and the index will oscillate [7][8][9][13] - Trading Volume and Open Interest Analysis: The trading volume of stock index futures has increased, and the open interest has generally risen [14] - Basis, Inter - Delivery Spread, and Inter - Variety Spread Analysis: The basis trend is differentiated. The inter - delivery spread of all varieties shows negative values, and the inter - variety spread indicates that small and medium-cap stocks performed relatively better this week [16][20][22] - Industry Sector Overview: In terms of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and CSI 500 by industry, the communication, information, and pharmaceutical sectors led the rise, while the energy, materials, and consumer sectors led the decline. At the primary industry level, the communication, national defense and military industry, and electronics sectors led the rise, while the coal, petroleum and petrochemical, and steel sectors led the decline [25][28] - Valuation Comparison: As of December 12, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are at relatively high levels in the past ten years [30] Treasury Bonds - This Week's Market Review: - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The trading data of treasury bond futures is summarized. The market has experienced ups and downs this week. In terms of strategy performance, the short - term futures performed stronger than the spot, and there is a certain positive arbitrage space for the 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling the basis for the 30 - year and 10 - year bonds. Currently, it is not recommended to participate in the inter - delivery strategy, and it is recommended to pay attention to the flattening strategy [33][34][38][41][53][55] - Bond Spot Market: The spot yields of treasury bonds have decreased in the short - term and increased in the long - term. The yields of US bonds have also decreased in the short - term and increased in the long - term [64] - Funding Situation: The central bank has made continuous net injections, and the inter - bank funding is loose. Funding rates remain low, and there is no liquidity stratification between banks and non - banks [74][76] - Interest Rate Derivatives: The yields of most interest rate swap varieties have declined this week, and liquidity expectations are stable [80] - Market Analysis: - Recent Market Logic: The domestic fundamentals have weakened marginally since mid - year, and the bond market's risk of a significant adjustment or a bear market is limited. However, the short - term implementation of loose policies is difficult, increasing short - term market volatility. If market sentiment improves, futures have room for a supplementary increase. Currently, the configuration demand is still cautious [82] - This Week's Fundamental Situation: In November, exports were stronger than expected, imports were weaker than expected, and PPI improvement was also weaker than expected. The demand side continues to maintain the characteristic of "strong external and weak internal" [83] - Next Week's Bond Market Outlook: Important meetings have set the tone for a loose monetary policy next year, but the possibility of short - term implementation is low. Next week's economic data is expected to maintain moderate recovery, and the support of funding for the bond market may weaken, with the market likely to maintain a weak oscillation [88] - Next Week's Open Market Maturities and Important Economic Calendar: A total of 7485 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature next week, and the November national economic activity data will be released [90] Shipping Index - Market Review: The expectation of price increases has fermented again, and the EC has rebounded and recovered. The market is conducting games around the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak, and the 02 contract has recovered and closed up [91] - Container Shipping Market Situation: - Spot Market: The freight rates of ocean routes have shown a differentiated trend, with the rates of European and American routes both declining. Shipowners have announced price increases for the second half of December and January, boosting the market's expectation of price increases before the Spring Festival [96] - Container Shipping Supply and Demand Fundamentals: On the supply side, the European container capacity in December is at a relatively high level in the off - season, and the potential capacity is expected to continue to grow. The possibility of full resumption of navigation in the Red Sea in the first quarter of next year is not high, but if the cease - fire is stable, the probability of gradual resumption in 2026 is large. On the demand side, it is difficult for the demand side to be significantly stimulated [101][102] - Market Outlook: The joint price increases of major shipowners may continue to boost the market's expectation of price increases before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the 02 - 04 contract [104]