瑞达期货铂镍金市场周报-20251212

Group 1: Report Summary - The main contracts of platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange showed a volatile and upward trend this week. The platinum 2606 main contract rose 2.67% to 452.05 yuan/gram, and the palladium 2606 main contract rose 2.58% to 389.45 yuan/gram [8]. - Driven by the good news of the Fed's interest rate cut, the prices of platinum and palladium broke through the previous consolidation range and regained upward momentum [8]. - In the medium and long term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit pattern, and the expansion of long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen energy economy. The demand for palladium is expected to weaken, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations may support its price [8]. - In the short term, due to the recent large increase in the precious metal market, attention should be paid to the risk of correction [8]. - The resistance and support levels for London platinum spot are 1750 US dollars/ounce and 1600 US dollars/ounce respectively; for London palladium spot, they are 1600 US dollars/ounce and 1400 US dollars/ounce. The reference ranges for platinum 2606 and palladium 2606 contracts are 445 - 460 yuan/gram and 385 - 400 yuan/gram respectively [8]. Group 2: Spot and Futures Market - As of December 12, 2025, the palladium 2606 main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was reported at 389.45 yuan/gram, up 2.58% for the week; the platinum 2606 main contract was reported at 452.05 yuan/gram, up 2.67% for the week [13]. - As of November 10, 2025 (latest), the total position of NYMEX platinum was 80,545 contracts, a 2.15% increase month - on - month; the net long position was 24,746, a 0.55% decrease month - on - month. The total position of NYMEX palladium was 20,626 contracts, a 4.64% increase month - on - month; the net long position was - 893, a 44.03% decrease month - on - month [16]. - This week, the basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts strengthened [17]. - As of December 11, 2025, NYMEX platinum inventory was 614,561.35 ounces, a 0.11% decrease month - on - month; NYMEX palladium inventory was 189,229.71 ounces, a 9.77% increase month - on - month [25]. - This week, the price ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold decreased slightly [26]. - This week, the rolling correlation coefficient between platinum and gold prices rebounded [29]. - Recently, the positive correlation between platinum prices and inventory, VIX index, and real yield of US Treasury bonds has increased [33]. Group 3: Industry Supply and Demand - As of October 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum both decreased [37]. - The demand for platinum in automobile exhaust catalysts has weakened marginally [42]. - The total global demand for platinum and palladium is showing a moderate downward trend [47]. - The global supply of platinum and palladium has declined [52]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield fluctuated weakly [55].