油料周报-20251214

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA's December report met market expectations, and the market continues to focus on the sowing and weather conditions of South American soybeans. The progress of China's procurement of US soybeans remains slow, and the arrival volume from December to January may be lower than expected. Brazil's soybean sowing is going smoothly, and the market expects an increase in area, which may put pressure on the supply from March to May next year. State reserve soybean auctions recently are beneficial for alleviating the shortage of domestic supply around January. On the demand side, breeding losses are suppressing purchasing enthusiasm, and demand is weak, being in a seasonal off - peak. Low prices and excessive forward discounts in futures may over - price future negative factors. For rapeseed, domestic rapeseed inventories are close to zero due to reduced imports, and both rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil imports are restricted by import tariffs. The arrival of Australian imports has increased recently, and the rapeseed import volume in December and January is expected to be at the historical average level. As the peak season for aquatic product demand ends, demand - side support will further weaken. For oils, the pressure on the supply side of soybean oil has slightly eased, and there is some support on the demand side due to the year - end peak season. The overseas biodiesel theme has slowed down, putting short - term pressure on oils. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil has exceeded expectations, and China's imports have slowed down, but the approaching Spring Festival may drive demand. The implementation of Indonesia's B50 plan may be postponed, weakening the demand expectation for palm oil as a biodiesel raw material. The high tariff on imported rapeseed in China affects the supply of rapeseed oil raw materials, and rapeseed oil is in a passive weak shock [6][38][39][40][41] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Soybean Meal: The USDA December report met expectations, and the market focuses on South American soybean sowing and weather. China's procurement of US soybeans is slow, and the December - January arrival volume may be lower than expected. Brazil's soybean sowing is smooth, which may pressure the March - May supply next year. State reserve auctions can alleviate the supply shortage around January. Demand is weak due to breeding losses and is in a seasonal off - peak. Low prices and forward discounts may over - price future negatives [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Domestic rapeseed inventories are close to zero due to reduced imports, and imports of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are restricted by tariffs. Australian imports are increasing, and the December - January import volume is expected to be at the historical average. As the aquatic product demand peak ends, demand support will weaken. Domestic rapeseed crushers are mostly shut down, and the spot price is scarce, being more affected by soybean meal in the short term [6] 3.2 Oils - Soybean Oil: The recent decline in oil mill crushing volume has slightly eased the supply - side pressure. There is some support on the demand side due to the year - end peak season. The slowdown of the overseas biodiesel theme puts short - term pressure on soybean oil. With low absolute prices and weak fundamentals, the price maintains a weak shock [38][39] - Palm Oil: Malaysia's December supply - demand data exceeded expectations, with inventory accumulation higher than expected. China's imports have slowed down, and demand is weak, but the approaching Spring Festival may drive demand. The postponement of Indonesia's B50 plan weakens the demand expectation for palm oil as a biodiesel raw material. Attention should be paid to the possible inventory reduction cycle due to seasonal production cuts in major producing countries from December to February [40] - Rapeseed Oil: High tariffs on imported rapeseed in China make the import volume of Canadian rapeseed uncertain, affecting the supply of rapeseed oil raw materials. Reduced imports have led to continuous inventory reduction of rapeseed oil. In the context of overall weak oils, rapeseed oil is in a passive weak shock, and short - term shocks are caused by demand substitution [41]