超长债修复行情结束了吗？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the bond market showed a "V" - shaped trend under the influence of policy expectations and sentiment. The central economic work conference boosted the market's loose expectations, but the long - end interest rate decline may be restricted by the economic recovery expectation. The bond market is expected to have a short - term repair, and the mid - term trend depends on policy implementation [1][5]. - In November, various economic data improved marginally compared with the previous month. Low inflation leaves room for monetary policy, and the bond market benefits from loose expectations [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Discussion: Has the Ultra - Long Bond Repair Market Ended? 3.1.1 Weekly Review - This week, the bond market's trend was dominated by policy expectations, showing a rise - then - fall pattern. The 30 - year treasury bond yield declined initially but rebounded sharply on Friday. Institutional behaviors were diverse, and market sentiment fluctuated rapidly between optimism and caution [11]. - Yields of different - maturity bonds showed mixed changes. Compared with the previous week, the yield of the 1 - year treasury bond active bond decreased slightly, while the 10 - year treasury bond active bond yield increased slightly [12]. 3.1.2 Trading Disk: Buying Power Rebounded under Policy Signal Stimulation - Driven by the loose policy expectations, institutional behaviors changed significantly. Large - scale banks increased their net purchases of interest - rate bonds, while rural commercial banks turned to net selling. Funds shifted from net selling to net buying, and wealth management products maintained a defensive stance [2][15]. 3.1.3 Impact of the Central Economic Work Conference on the Bond Market - The conference strengthened the loose expectations. The monetary policy may implement reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts at the end of this year or in the first quarter of next year. The fiscal policy is expected to be relatively stable, and the bond supply pressure may be less than this year, which supports the bond market [3][22]. - In the short term, the loose expectations boost the bond market sentiment, and the ultra - long bonds start a weak repair market. In the medium term, if policies are implemented, the market interest rate will be pushed down, but the long - end interest rate decline may be restricted [5][24]. 3.1.4 November Import and Export Data Rebounded Significantly Year - on - Year due to the Base Effect - In November, foreign trade data showed that exports turned positive, and the trade surplus rebounded significantly. Exports to the EU and emerging markets increased, while the decline in exports to the US expanded. The recovery of foreign trade is affected by multiple factors, and the future may show a pattern of multi - market support and moderate recovery [25][28]. 3.1.5 November CPI Year - on - Year Recovery Accelerated - In November, inflation data showed that CPI increased year - on - year, food CPI turned positive, and PPI decreased slightly year - on - year but stabilized month - on - month. The low - inflation environment leaves room for monetary policy, and the bond market can benefit from loose expectations [29][34]. 3.1.6 Corporate Financing Demand Increased Marginally, while Household Financing Demand Remained Weak - In November, financial data showed that social financing increased significantly, and credit turned positive, but the structure was differentiated. Corporate medium - and long - term loans increased, while household loans remained weak. The future financial data may continue the trend of "total volume recovery and structural optimization" [35][37]. 3.1.7 Next Week and Future Outlook - Next week, there will be a large - scale OMO 7 - day reverse repurchase maturity, and the government bond net payment scale is not large. The inter - bank certificate of deposit maturity is over 1 trillion. The DR007 may rise slightly during the tax period, but overall, the funds are stable [38]. - In the short term, the loose expectations boost the bond market sentiment, and the ultra - long bonds start a repair market. In the medium term, if policies are implemented, the bond market will benefit, but the long - end interest rate decline may be restricted. The strategy suggests short - term bargain - hunting for ultra - long bonds and medium - and long - term "dumbbell - shaped allocation" [5][40]. 3.2 Weekly Tracking of Interest - Rate Bond Data 3.2.1 Weekly Liquidity Tracking - The data shows the central bank's open - market operations, including reverse repurchase, MLF, and other operations, as well as the trends of repurchase funds and inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance and maturity [42]. 3.2.2 Weekly Bond Valuation Tracking - The report provides the absolute interest rate levels, historical quantiles, interest rate changes, variety spreads, and term spreads of different - type bonds in the current week and the previous week [57][61][62]. 3.2.3 After - Tax Yield Atlas of Bonds Invested by Funds and Banks - Relevant charts show the after - tax yields of major bond types invested by funds and banks on December 6, 2025 [71][74]. 3.2.4 Weekly Tracking of Institutional Behaviors - The data shows the trading scale of different institutional investors in different types of bonds in different weeks, reflecting the changes in institutional behaviors [76].