日银加息在即，市场关注中性利率

Interest Rate Outlook - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise the policy interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75% during the monetary policy meeting on December 18-19, marking the highest rate since 1995[1] - Market expectations for an interest rate hike have exceeded 90% as of December 12, indicating that a rate increase is almost certain[1] Neutral Interest Rate Assessment - The BOJ is reassessing the neutral interest rate, which is crucial for evaluating monetary policy stance, with previous estimates placing it between 1% and 2.5%[1] - The estimated range for the natural interest rate is between -1% and 0.5%, suggesting a long-term downward trend[1] Implications of Rate Adjustments - If the BOJ raises the neutral interest rate estimate above the policy rate, it would indicate a continued accommodative financial environment, allowing for more future rate hikes[1] - The previous lower bound of 1% for the neutral interest rate may no longer serve as a cap for rate hikes, as the BOJ is increasingly confident in achieving its 2% inflation target[1] Risks and Uncertainties - There is uncertainty regarding the estimates of the natural interest rate, as different models show varying results, with some indicating values below zero since around 1995[1] - Financial market volatility and unexpected changes in BOJ monetary policy pose risks to the outlook[1]