LPG早报-20251215

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Middle East LPG supply is tight, and prices are unlikely to drop significantly in winter; the domestic LPG market is expected to be weak in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent PDH operation under high costs and the situation of factory - warehouse warrants [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Basis - On Friday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4419 (+4), in Shandong was 4430 (+30), and in South China was 4420 (+0). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4560 (-10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 26 [4] - The PG futures price dropped due to falling oil prices, PDH shutdown news, and an increase in warrants. The basis was 265 (+122), the 01 - 02 month - spread was 84 (+5), and the 03 - 04 month - spread was -223 (-12). The number of warrants was 5476 lots (+865) [4] External Market and Arbitrage - The external paper market first rose and then fell. The FEI and CP month - spreads strengthened, while the MB month - spread weakened; the oil - gas ratio declined. The domestic - foreign relationship weakened, with PG - CP at 71 (-28) and PG - FEI at 65 (-14). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened [4] Premium and Freight - The East China propane arrival premium was 85 (-7). The AFBI, Middle East, and US propane FOB premiums were 42 (+12), 42 (+17), and 47 (+4) respectively. Freight rates increased slightly [4] Profit and Operation - The PDH spot and futures profits weakened; the alkylation unit performance deteriorated; the MTBE profit fluctuated. The chemical demand profit was poor, but the operation was stable, with the PDH operation rate at 72.87% (+2.65pct) [4] Inventory and Supply - The arrival volume increased by 12.25%, and the port inventory increased by 3.22%; the external supply increased slightly by 1.3%, and the refinery storage capacity increased slightly by 0.27% [4]