集运早报-20251215

Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The December contract follows the delivery logic, with a small deviation and low positions [3] - The February contract has a moderately high valuation, and is expected to move sideways in the short - term. Looking ahead, the driving force is upward due to strong and recovering cargo volume. Historically, freight rate peaks often occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (mid - to late January 2026), but the high capacity in January 2026 may suppress the peak. At the current valuation, it is recommended to wait and see [3] - The April contract has limited short - term downside. Attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities when the April contract may rise following the near - month contracts [3] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1650.0, with a decline of 0.19%, a basis of - 140.9, trading volume of 245, and an open interest of 2947 with a decrease of 84 [2] - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1677.8, with a decline of 0.66%, a basis of - 168.7, trading volume of 27001, and an open interest of 31664 with an increase of 41 [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1106.0, with an increase of 1.22%, a basis of 403.1, trading volume of 10155, and an open interest of 19930 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1260.8, with an increase of 2.71%, a basis of 248.3, trading volume of 790, and an open interest of 2355 with an increase of 59 [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1431.7, with an increase of 3.61%, a basis of 77.4, trading volume of 763 [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1030.0, with an increase of 0.82%, a basis of 479.1, trading volume of 813, and an open interest of 4582 with an increase of 291 [2] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2512 - 2504: The previous day's value was 544.0, with a daily decrease of 16.4 and a weekly decrease of 15.0 [2] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's value was - 27.8, with a daily increase of 8.1 and a weekly decrease of 91.9 [2] - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's value was 571.8, with a daily decrease of 24.5 and a weekly increase of 76.9 [2] Spot Freight Rate Index - SCFIS: Updated every Monday, as of December 8, 2025, it was 1509.10 points, with a 1.72% increase from the previous period and a - 9.50% decrease from the period before [2] - SCFI: Updated every week, as of December 12, 2025, it was 1538 dollars/TEU, with a 9.86% increase from the previous period and a - 0.28% decrease from the period before [2] - CCFI (European Line): Updated every week, as of December 12, 2025, it was 1470.55 points, with a 1.59% increase from the previous period and a - 0.12% decrease from the period before [2] - NCFI: Updated every week, as of December 12, 2025, it was 1064.13 points, with a 9.98% increase from the previous period and a - 5.57% decrease from the period before [2] European Line Spot Situation - Week 50: The central price was 2200 US dollars, equivalent to 1540 points on the futures market [3] - Week 51: MSK opened at 2400 US dollars (a 200 - dollar increase from the previous week); MSC and OA quoted 2600 - 2700 US dollars, and PA quoted 2400 US dollars. The current central price is 1760 US dollars, equivalent to about 1760 points on the futures market [3] - Week 52: MSK opened at 2300 US dollars (a 100 - dollar decrease from the previous week), and other companies mainly followed the Week 51 prices [8] Related News - On December 13, 2025, MSC issued a price - increase letter for January, raising the freight rates for 20 - foot and 40 - foot containers on European lines to 2220 and 3700 US dollars respectively [4] - On December 12, 2025, the EU Council agreed to impose a fixed tariff of 3 euros on small packages worth less than 150 euros entering the EU through e - commerce from July 1, 2026 [4] - On December 12, 2025, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu held a meeting with the security cabinet, worrying about a potential military operation in Lebanon [4] - US officials said that the Gaza International Stabilization Force may be deployed as early as next month, but how to disarm Hamas remains unclear [4] Future Price Increase Plans - In January, MSK and MSC announced price increases to 3500 and 3700 US dollars respectively [7]