铁矿石产业期现日报-20251215

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the reports about industry investment ratings 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Recent steel fundamentals continue to show production cuts and inventory reduction. The previous over - stocking of plates and seasonal demand decline led to significant production cuts by steel mills. The decrease in molten iron production exacerbates the looseness of raw material spot, and the negative feedback logic is smooth. After steel production cuts clear inventory, it is beneficial for price stabilization. The current price decline is driven by both steel mill production cut negative feedback trading and coking coal near - month warehouse receipt and spot pressure. Future price stabilization depends more on the coking coal price rhythm. It is recommended to close the short position of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar in January. The May contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to move in the ranges of 3000 - 3200 yuan and 3200 - 3350 yuan respectively [2] Iron Ore Industry - Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated and declined. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume increased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, steel mills continued to cut production, molten iron production decreased, steel mill maintenance increased, steel prices fluctuated at a low level, and the profitability of steel mills declined. In terms of inventory, iron ore port inventory increased, the port clearance volume increased, and the steel mill's equity ore inventory decreased. Looking forward, there is a possibility of further decline in steel mill molten iron production, steel prices will fluctuate at a low level, the market will gradually weaken, and iron ore valuation will decline. The strategy is to maintain a bearish view on iron ore futures, short the 2605 contract, with an operating range of 730 - 780. It is recommended to go long on finished products and short on iron ore for arbitrage, and long the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore [4][6] Coking Coal and Coke Industry - Last week, coking coal futures fluctuated and declined. On the supply side, coal mine shipments worsened, daily production decreased slightly, and coal mines accumulated inventory again. Near the end of the year, coal mine production may continue to decline. In terms of imported coal, port inventory continued to accumulate, and Mongolian coal prices followed the futures down. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, molten iron production declined, coking profits recovered, and coking plant开工 decreased slightly. In terms of inventory, steel mills reduced inventory, while coal mines, coal washing plants, ports, coking enterprises, and ports accumulated inventory, with the overall inventory increasing slightly from the middle level. Policy - wise, ensuring the long - term coal supply for power plants remains the main theme, and the over - capacity pattern persists. For coking coal, the short positions and arbitrage can take profit, and there is an expectation of a short - term rebound. For coke, the overall situation is similar to that of coking coal, with production cuts, inventory changes, and market trends affected by the upstream and downstream industries [8] 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East China remained unchanged at 3270 yuan/ton, decreased by 10 yuan/ton in North China to 3150 yuan/ton and in South China to 3250 yuan/ton. Futures contracts also declined slightly, with the 05 contract at 3060 yuan/ton, the 10 contract at 3093 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract at 3082 yuan/ton [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Spot prices in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3240 yuan/ton, in North China by 20 yuan/ton to 3170 yuan/ton, and in South China by 10 yuan/ton to 3250 yuan/ton. Futures contracts also declined, with the 05 contract at 3232 yuan/ton, the 10 contract at 3239 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract at 3240 yuan/ton [2] Cost and Profit - Steel billet price remained at 2940 yuan/ton, and slab price remained at 3730 yuan/ton. Costs of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar and converter rebar decreased by 5 yuan/ton and 15 yuan/ton respectively. Profits of East China hot - rolled coil decreased by 7 yuan/ton, while North China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 23 yuan/ton. East China rebar profit increased by 13 yuan/ton, and South China rebar profit increased by 3 yuan/ton [2] Supply - Daily average molten iron production decreased by 3.0 tons to 229.3 tons, a decrease of 1.3%. The production of five major steel products decreased by 22.7 tons to 806.2 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. Rebar production decreased by 10.5 tons to 178.8 tons, a decrease of 5.6%, including a 4.0% decrease in electric - furnace production and a 5.8% decrease in converter production. Hot - rolled coil production decreased by 5.6 tons to 308.7 tons, a decrease of 1.8% [2] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 33.5 tons to 1332.1 tons, a decrease of 2.5%. Rebar inventory decreased by 24.3 tons to 479.5 tons, a decrease of 4.8%. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 3.3 tons to 397.1 tons, a decrease of 0.8% [2] Transaction and Demand - Building material transaction volume decreased by 0.2 to 9.0, a decrease of 1.9%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 24.5 tons to 839.7 tons, a decrease of 2.8%. Rebar apparent demand decreased by 13.9 tons to 203.1 tons, a decrease of 6.4%. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 2.9 tons to 312.0 tons, a decrease of 0.9% [2] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - Warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased slightly, with PB powder, Bar - mixed powder, and Jinbuba powder increasing by 0.1%. The 01 - contract basis of various iron ore powders decreased, with the basis of Carajás fines decreasing by 70.4%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.5 to 22.5, a decrease of 6.3%, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 2.5 to - 44.5, an increase of 5.3%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1.0 to 22.0, a decrease of 4.3% [4] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port increased slightly, with an increase of 0.1%. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap decreased by 0.8 to 105.8, a decrease of 0.7%, and the Platts 62% Fe decreased by 1.4 to 105.0, a decrease of 1.3% [4] Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports (weekly) decreased by 218.8 tons to 2480.5 tons, a decrease of 8.1%. The global shipment volume (weekly) increased by 45.4 tons to 3368.6 tons, an increase of 1.4%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a decrease of 4.3% [4] Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 3.1 tons to 229.2 tons, a decrease of 1.3%. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports (weekly) decreased by 7.8 tons to 319.2 tons, a decrease of 2.4%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 49.7 tons to 6554.9 tons, a decrease of 0.8%, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 149.3 tons to 7199.7 tons, a decrease of 2.0% [4] Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports (weekly) increased by 82.4 tons to 15431.42 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 150.5 tons to 8834.2 tons, a decrease of 1.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) increased by 1.0 to 20.0 days, an increase of 5.3% [4] Coking Coal and Coke Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) and Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The coking coal 01 contract decreased, and the 05 contract also decreased. The 01 - contract basis decreased, and the 05 - contract basis also changed. The JM01 - JM05 spread decreased. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) decreased [8] Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) decreased by 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.0%. The coke 01 contract decreased, and the 05 contract also decreased. The 01 - contract basis and 05 - contract basis changed. The J01 - J05 spread increased. The steel - union coking profit (weekly) decreased [8] Supply - The coke production (weekly) decreased by 14.1 tons, a decrease of 1.8%. The daily average production of the full - sample coking plant decreased by 0.6 tons, a decrease of 0.9%, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills remained unchanged. The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased slightly, and the clean coal production also decreased slightly [8] Demand - The molten iron production (weekly) decreased by 3.1 tons to 229.2 tons, a decrease of 1.3%. The coke production (weekly) decreased by 0.6 tons, a decrease of 0.9% [8] Inventory Changes - The coking coal inventory (weekly) increased in some parts and decreased in others. The coke total inventory increased by 20.8 tons to 883.0 tons, an increase of 2.4%. The full - sample coking plant coke inventory increased by 10.9 tons, an increase of 14.2%, and the 247 steel mills' coke inventory increased by 10.0 tons, an increase of 1.6%. The port inventory of coke decreased slightly, and the steel mills' available days increased [8] Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 3.6 tons, a decrease of 0.5%, and the coke supply - demand gap calculation showed a change of 0.9 [8]