芳烃橡胶早报-20251215

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, in the near - term, TA device runs stably, polyester load drops slightly, inventory decreases, and basis strengthens slightly. In the future, as the terminal weakens, polyester load may reach a turning point, and TA inventory will accumulate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and consider long - position opportunities at low prices in the long - run due to good PX prospects [2]. - For MEG, domestic oil - based units reduce load, and overseas units also cut production. The port inventory accumulates. In the future, after the valuation is compressed, production cuts increase, and the inventory accumulation narrows. However, considering new production capacity, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up rate decreases due to maintenance. Sales are stable, and inventory is stable. In the future, demand remains the same, but new production capacity is accelerating, and the downstream is entering the off - season. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Data Changes: From December 8th to 12th, 2025, crude oil price dropped by 0.4 USD, PTA spot price decreased by 30 CNY, and polyester gross profit increased by 35 CNY. The PTA balance load decreased by 0.3%, and the basis increased by 3 CNY. The daily average basis of PTA spot trading for 2601 is - 22 [2]. - Situation Analysis: Near - term TA device runs stably, polyester load drops slightly, inventory decreases, basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fee weakens. In the future, as the terminal weakens, polyester load may reach a turning point, and TA inventory will accumulate, but the overall pressure is not large and the valuation is not high [2]. MEG - Data Changes: From December 8th to 12th, 2025, MEG outer - market price dropped by 2 USD, and MEG inner - market price decreased by 28 CNY. The coal - based MEG profit increased by 14.24 CNY, and the inner - market cash flow (ethylene) decreased by 26 CNY [2]. - Situation Analysis: Near - term domestic oil - based units reduce load, overseas units also cut production, the port inventory accumulates, and the basis weakens. In the future, after the valuation is compressed, production cuts increase, and the inventory accumulation narrows [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Data Changes: From December 8th to 12th, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 50 CNY, and the profit of pure - polyester yarn increased by 50 CNY [2]. - Situation Analysis: Near - term the start - up rate decreases due to maintenance, sales are stable, and inventory is stable. In the future, demand remains the same, but new production capacity is accelerating, and the downstream is entering the off - season [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - Data Changes: From December 8th to 12th, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 5 USD, and the price of Shanghai full - latex rubber increased by 40 CNY. The basis between mixed rubber and RU main contract decreased by 25 CNY [2]. - Situation Analysis: The national explicit inventory is stable, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable. The main contradiction lies in stable inventory and rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. Styrene - Data Changes: From December 8th to 12th, 2025, the price of styrene (CFR China) decreased by 10 USD, and the price of EPS (East China ordinary material) remained unchanged. The domestic profit of styrene decreased by 87 CNY [2][5]. - Situation Analysis: No overall situation analysis provided in the report. Only data changes are presented.