大越期货玻璃早报-20251215

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of glass are weak, with production profit repair being sluggish and supply contraction falling short of expectations. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real estate drag, and inventory is at a historical high for the same period. The short - term outlook is expected to be mainly weak and volatile [2]. - The supply of glass has stabilized at a low level, downstream deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventories have rebounded. Therefore, it is expected that glass will mainly show a low - level weak and volatile trend [6]. 3. Content Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 956 yuan/ton to 935 yuan/ton, a decline of - 2.20%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - size glass decreased from 968 yuan/ton to 948 yuan/ton, a decline of - 2.07%. The main basis increased from 12 yuan/ton to 13 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.33% [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 948 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - No specific content on cost analysis is summarized. Information mainly mentions data sources for glass production profit [15][20]. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 219, with an operating rate of 73.84%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 155,000 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low for the same period [23][25]. Fundamentals - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons [28]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 58.227 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.04% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [41]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a float glass annual supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E, showing data such as production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio for each year [42]. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: "Coal - to - Gas" in the Shahe area and cold repairs in the industry have led to production losses [4]. - Negative Factors: The real - estate end - demand remains weak, and the number of orders for glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw - glass inventories [5].