橡胶策略周报：多单持有-20251215

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests holding long positions in rubber futures [1][2][7] 2. Core View - The rubber market showed a trend of hitting a low and then rebounding this week, with strong support below and signs of a potential breakthrough. It is advisable to maintain a bullish mindset [2][3][7] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market Review - RU2605 opened at 15,085, reached a high of 15,350, a low of 14,960, and closed at 15,230, up 1.1%. NR2602 opened at 12,025, reached a high of 12,430, a low of 12,025, and closed at 12,330, up 2.41%. BR2602 opened at 10,400, reached a high of 10,795, a low of 10,365, and closed at 10,720, up 2.73%. The natural rubber market hit a low and then rebounded, with active buying at lower prices. The Central Economic Work Conference on Friday released positive information. Although the price was suppressed by the moving average on the technical chart, there were signs of a breakthrough [3] Spot Market Review - The price of 2024 state - owned whole latex in Shanghai and Yunnan, including 9% tax, was 14,950 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last week. The price of smoked sheets in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,100 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from last week. The price of BR9000 in Shanghai was 10,850 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan/ton from last week [4] Inventory Review - The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased this week. The subtotal inventory increased by 12,324 tons to 105,542 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 11,460 tons to 56,990 tons. The inventory in Qingdao increased both week - on - week and year - on - year, which may put pressure on price increases [5] Market Structure - The basis strengthened slightly this week because the spot price increased more [5] Forecast and Operation Strategy - The natural rubber price declined this week, and the technical pattern deteriorated again. The raw material prices in Thailand varied this week, with smoked sheets falling and cup rubber and latex rising. The operating rates of tire enterprises rebounded, and their inventories increased. The natural rubber market is in a seasonal bullish pattern, with domestic rubber tapping gradually stopping and strong downstream demand. The bearish sentiment caused by the decline in tire exports was offset by the positive information released by the Central Economic Work Conference. Downstream buying was active. Although the price was suppressed by the moving average on the technical chart, there were signs of a breakthrough. It is recommended to maintain a bullish mindset [6][7]