中金-银行：理财2026年展望：存款搬家、资产配置新叙事

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the wealth management industry, projecting an 8% growth in 2026, with potential expansion to 36 trillion yuan, and possibly up to 37.4 trillion yuan if market conditions improve [12][14]. Core Insights - The wealth management industry is expected to benefit from the trend of deposit migration and the release of existing floating profits, leading to unexpected growth in 2025 [3][14]. - In 2026, wealth management institutions will have opportunities for multi-asset allocation and a further decline in household savings rates, but they will also face pressure from valuation adjustments [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the changes in residents' risk preferences and the implications for asset allocation, indicating a shift towards more liquid deposits and asset management products [23][39]. Summary by Sections Resident Risk Preferences - The report suggests that in 2026, residents will have a slight increase in risk appetite, leading to a trend of liquid deposits and asset management products [4][23]. - The potential for increased allocation to rights products is noted, although the growth elasticity may not be significant at this stage [4][23]. Deposit Migration Trends - In 2025, the average decline in retail deposit rates was approximately 30 basis points, with a notable slowdown in the growth of fixed-term deposits [4][44]. - The report anticipates that in 2026, 32 trillion yuan of fixed-term deposits will mature, with a re-pricing range of 70-170 basis points, creating conditions for further deposit migration [4][45]. Fund Flow from Excess Savings - The report estimates that from 2020 to 2025, there will be a total of 14.4 trillion yuan in excess savings, with a potential additional 2-4 trillion yuan flowing into non-fixed deposit investment areas in 2026 [5][46]. - A decrease in the savings rate by 1 percentage point could lead to an additional 0.9 trillion yuan in new funds directed towards wealth management, funds, insurance, and real estate [5][46]. Wealth Management Asset Allocation Outlook - The report predicts that pure fixed-income wealth management products will grow by 7.5% to 24.9 trillion yuan in 2026, contributing significantly to the overall growth of the industry [13][14]. - The demand for public fund outsourcing, particularly for bond ETFs and rights funds, is expected to grow rapidly, driven by the need for enhanced returns [13][14]. Valuation Adjustment and Market Conditions - The report highlights that wealth management products will face "true" net value adjustment pressures starting in 2026, which may lead to increased product volatility [11][54]. - The need for wealth management institutions to effectively meet investor demands for stable value growth while managing expectations is emphasized as a key challenge [11][54].