大越期货油脂早报-20251215

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil and fat supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Oil Type Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - month inventory decreased 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less than expected production cuts. Current shipping survey agencies show a 4% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil export data this month, and the subsequent supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8360, and the basis is 366, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish. [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons compared with the previous 1.16 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is bearish. [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. [2] - Main positions: The long positions of the soybean oil main contract are decreasing, which is bullish. [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8200. [2] Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil in terms of the MPOB report. However, palm oil will enter the production - increasing season, and the supply will increase. [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8600, and the basis is 48, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is neutral. [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons compared with the previous 570,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is bullish. [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. [3] - Main positions: The short positions of the palm oil main contract are increasing, which is bearish. [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8300 - 8700. [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to the above two in terms of the MPOB report, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production - increasing season. [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9960, and the basis is 613, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish. [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons compared with the previous 550,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is bearish. [4] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. [4] - Main positions: The long positions of the rapeseed oil main contract are increasing, which is bullish. [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9100 - 9500. [4] 4. Recent利多and利空Analysis - 利多: The US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] - 利空: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil and fat inventory is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high. [5] - Main logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5]