大越期货豆粕早报-20251215

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - M2605 Soybean Meal: Expected to oscillate between 2740 and 2800. Influenced by US soybean trends, short - term demand improvement, and spot price discounts, it may maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - A2601 Soybeans: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4100 and 4200. Affected by US soybean trends, domestic - to - imported soybean price ratios, and domestic soybean production, it will be subject to the follow - up of Sino - US trade agreements and Brazilian soybean arrivals [11]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean Meal: Short - term oscillation, influenced by US soybean trends, demand changes, and inventory levels [9]. - Soybeans: Short - term oscillation, affected by US soybean trends, domestic - to - imported soybean price ratios, and supply - demand factors [11]. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations have reached a preliminary agreement, which is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather are uncertain. - Domestic imported soybean arrivals will decline in December, while oil refinery soybean inventories will remain high. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits lead to low expectations for pig restocking, but the recovery of soybean meal demand in December supports price expectations [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Soybean Meal Bullish: Preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, no pressure on domestic oil refinery soybean meal inventory, and uncertain weather in US and South American soybean - growing regions [14]. - Soybean Meal Bearish: High volume of domestic imported soybean arrivals in December and expected high - yield South American soybeans [15]. - Soybean Bullish: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [16]. - Soybean Bearish: High - yield Brazilian soybeans and increased domestic soybean production [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: The report provides data from 2015 - 2024, including harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [33]. - Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: Data from 2015 - 2024 are presented, covering harvest area, initial inventory, production, imports, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [34]. 3.5 Position Data - The report does not explicitly summarize position data but mentions that the main short positions in soybean meal have increased, and funds have flowed out; for soybeans, the main short positions have decreased, and funds have also flowed out [9][11]. 3.6 Other Market Information - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices: Data from December 5 - 12, 2025, are provided, including prices of soybean futures, soybean meal futures, and soybean and soybean meal spot prices [19]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipts: Data from December 3 - 12, 2025, are given, showing changes in warehouse receipts for soybeans and soybean meal [21]. - Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress: Progress data for the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2026 are presented [35][36][40][44]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: Data from May - December 2025 are provided, including planting area, yield, production, ending inventory, exports, and crushing volume [46]. - US Soybean Weekly Export Inspections: There has been a month - on - month increase but a year - on - year decrease [47]. - Domestic Imported Soybean Arrivals: Arrivals decreased from a high in November, with an overall year - on - year increase [49]. - Oil Refinery Operations: High soybean inventory, high soybean meal inventory, increased unfulfilled contracts, high soybean crushing volume, and increased soybean meal production in September [50][52][54]. - Pig Farming: Pig inventory is rising, sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly down month - on - month, pig prices are fluctuating slightly, piglet prices are weak, the proportion of large pigs is increasing, and pig - farming profits are fluctuating slightly [58][60][64].