大越期货生猪期货早报-20251215

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic large pigs is increasing, coupled with the recent rise in swine fever, leading to a short - term increase in slaughter and suppressing hog prices. It is expected that both hog and pork supply will increase. On the demand side, the domestic macro - environment is expected to improve, and the demand for cured meat is gradually releasing, supporting the price bottom, but overall consumption remains unoptimistic. The market this week may see an increase in both supply and demand, with hog prices expected to decline in the short - term and maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term. The LH2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,400 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamentals show that supply and demand are both increasing, and the market may be neutral. The basis indicates that the spot price is at a premium to the futures, also neutral. Inventory data as of September 30 shows that the hog存栏 increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.3% year - on - year, and the sow存栏 increased by 0.01% month - on - month and decreased by 0.66% year - on - year, which is bearish. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving down, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions, both being bearish [8]. 2. Recent News - The domestic hog consumption market is affected by the off - season, swine fever has spread, and hog slaughter has increased, leading to an increase in supply. Spot prices are weak in the short - term and maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, pork demand has decreased in the short - term, and prices are affected by increased supply. However, the continued decline space may be limited, and prices may show a bottom - fishing and rebound trend. The domestic hog farming profit loss has expanded recently, and the enthusiasm for large pig slaughter has decreased in the short - term. The decrease in both supply and demand supports the short - term hog futures and spot price expectations [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include that the domestic hog supply enters the off - season after the long holiday and the continued decline space of domestic hog spot prices may be limited. Bearish factors are that the domestic macro - environment is expected to improve due to the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement and the domestic hog存栏 is increasing year - on - year. The current main logic is that the market focuses on hog slaughter and fresh meat demand [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - As of March 31, the hog存栏 was 408.5 million, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of the end of May 2024, the sow存栏 was 39.96 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2% [26]. 5. Position Data - The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [8].