大越期货菜粕早报-20251215

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2320 - 2380. It is influenced by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation, and the market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term trend will maintain a range - bound pattern, and attention should be paid to future developments [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2320 - 2380. Its fundamentals are neutral, with the basis being in a premium state (spot 2510, basis 163), which is bullish. The inventory is 1.75 tons, a 2.78% week - on - week decrease and a 20.45% year - on - year decrease, also bullish. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish. The main long positions are increasing while the funds are flowing out, which is bullish [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvest stage, but due to Sino - Canadian trade issues, short - term exports are expected to decrease. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports found it to be true, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise in the future, providing support for commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the relatively low inventory pressure of oil mills on rapeseed meal. - Bearish factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From December 4th to 12th, the trading volume of rapeseed meal was mostly 0, with only 0.6 tons on December 10th. The trading volume of soybean meal fluctuated between 8.25 - 27.85 tons during the same period. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 566 - 628 [13]. - From December 4th to 12th, the prices of near - month rapeseed meal futures 2601, main - contract 2605, and rapeseed meal spot (Fujian) all fluctuated. The spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium slightly expanded [15][18]. - From December 3rd to 12th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at 0 [17]. - The arrival of imported rapeseed in December increased slightly, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remained at a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory was also at a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remained at zero [23][25][27]. - The price of aquatic fish decreased slightly, while the price of shrimps and shellfish remained stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.