氯碱周报：SH：供需仍存压力累库持续，预计价格偏弱运行，V：供应压力增长，价格延续底部震荡-20251215

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The caustic soda industry still faces certain supply - demand pressures. Although enterprise inventories have started to decline and there is some downstream purchasing enthusiasm in some regions, inventory levels remain high. In the short term, there are no obvious positive factors, and prices are expected to be weak. The PVC market is expected to continue range - bound operation. Supply pressure remains high next week, demand is under pressure both domestically and internationally, and cost - side support is expected to weaken. Overall, the supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, and prices are not optimistic, expected to continue the weakening trend. [2][3] - Futures strategy advice: Hold short positions for caustic soda and maintain a bearish mindset for PVC; Option strategy advice: Observe for both caustic soda and PVC. [4][5] Summary by Directory Caustic Soda - Price Trend: The caustic soda price has experienced multiple fluctuations due to factors such as macro - environment changes, alumina demand, inventory levels, and cost changes. Currently, it is expected to be weak. [8] - Supply Situation: As of Thursday this week, the national weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises was 89.84%, a 0.02 - percentage - point decrease from last week. In Shandong, the operating rate was 91.71%, an increase of 0.26%. On December 10, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in expanded sample enterprises in East China decreased by 5.14% compared to December 3, and in Shandong, it decreased by 18.12%. [27] - Device Status: There are multiple caustic soda plants under maintenance or with planned maintenance, such as Wuhai Chemical, Zhejiang Juhua, and Ningbo Wanhua. The total maintenance loss this week is 239 tons. [28] - Alumina Impact: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina production capacity to be put into operation is 12.3 million tons (including 2 million tons of replacement), with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The estimated annual alumina output in 2025 is over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina production capacity will increase the demand for caustic soda by around 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated demand increase of 150,000 tons from April to June. [32] - Non - Alumina Downstream: The textile starting rate has declined, while the viscose staple fiber starting rate has increased. [51] - Export Situation: In October, caustic soda exports weakened, and the estimated export profit declined. [58] Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - Price Trend: The PVC price has fluctuated due to factors such as supply - demand changes, macro - environment, and energy prices. Currently, the core contradiction is that the supply - demand has not been substantially improved, and the spot price has continued to weaken. [65][66] - Profit Situation: The industry profit has continued to deteriorate, including the profits of different production methods such as the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method. [71] - Supply Situation: This week, the domestic PVC powder industry's operating load rate decreased slightly. The overall operating load rate was 78.39%, a 0.62 - percentage - point decrease from last week. Among them, the calcium carbide - method PVC powder operating load rate decreased by 2.96 percentage points, and the ethylene - method PVC powder operating load rate increased by 4.75 percentage points. [87] - Device Status: There are multiple PVC plants under long - term shutdown, maintenance, or with planned maintenance, such as Taiwen Salt Chemical, Ningbo Zhenyang, and Ningbo Hanhua. [89] - Downstream Demand: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face pressure from both demand and industry competition. The real - estate sector still gives negative feedback on demand, and domestic demand has not improved significantly. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and both raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels. [95] - Real - Estate Data: The real - estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, with the housing sales price index and land transaction area showing certain trends. [96] - Inventory Situation: The total PVC inventory is still at the highest level in recent years compared year - on - year. [103] - External Market and Export: Some external market prices have weakened. In October 2025, PVC exports were 312,100 tons, with an average export price of $605 per ton. Imports were 10,900 tons, with an average import price of $725 per ton. [110][121]