广发期货《有色》日报-20251215

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The current high copper prices are mainly driven by the structural imbalance of supply and inventory. The COMEX - LME premium has led the US to continuously attract non - US copper resources, and the Fed's actions have boosted market risk appetite. - Concerns about the tightness of the ore end persist, and the tightness may be transmitted to the smelting end. High copper prices have suppressed terminal demand. - In the future, the imbalance of global copper supply and inventory and the tight ore end will limit the downside space of copper prices. Short - term price fluctuations may intensify, and the main support is at 90,000 - 91,000 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - Domestic zinc mines are entering the production - reduction season, and the supply of refined zinc is gradually shifting from loose to tight. The export of zinc ingots has improved the market, and domestic spot zinc ingots remain at a premium. - The LME inventory has been accumulating, but the LME 0 - 3 premium remains high. The Fed's actions have boosted zinc prices. - In the future, the tightness of the ore end may lead to the tightness of zinc ingots. The short - term Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. Pay attention to the inflection point of TC and the change in refined zinc inventory, with the main support at 23,000 - 23,200 yuan/ton [5]. Nickel - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro - sentiment has been digested, and there is limited further driving force after the valuation repair. The fundamentals are under pressure, and the nickel price is facing adjustment. - The spot nickel price has declined, and downstream demand is weak. Overseas inventory accumulation has slowed down, while domestic social inventory pressure has increased. - In the short term, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main reference range of 114,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [6]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has certain support from the supply and cost sides, but the off - season demand limits the upside space. - The nickel ore market is stable, and the nickel - iron and chromium - iron prices have different trends. The supply pressure is slightly relieved, but the demand is weak, and the inventory reduction is limited. - In the short term, stainless steel is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main operating range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the implementation of steel - mill production reduction and the marginal improvement of demand [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and it is expected that the improvement of tin ore supply within the year will be limited. The demand in the South China region shows certain resilience, especially in the new - energy - related fields. - The market sentiment is positive, and the fundamentals are strong. It is expected that the tin price will maintain a strong trend within the year. Hold long positions and consider buying on dips [11]. Aluminum - The alumina market has a structural surplus, with stable supply growth and peak demand. The inventory has accumulated to a historical high, and the cost support has shifted downward. The short - term price may be volatile, and the reference range for the main contract is 2,500 - 2,700 yuan/ton. - The electrolytic aluminum market is in a high - level wide - range shock under the interweaving of macro - sentiment and fundamentals. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 22,300 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the Fed's policies and domestic inventory changes [12]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy has remained high and volatile. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the increase in the price of primary aluminum has increased the cost pressure on recycled aluminum plants. - The demand shows a marginal weakening trend, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The ADC12 price is restricted by strong costs and weak demand, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range. The reference range for the main contract is 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. Pay attention to scrap - aluminum supply, downstream orders, and macro - sentiment [13]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon has weakened under the pressure of cost decline expectations, significant demand decline expectations, and continuous inventory increase. - It is expected that the supply - demand situation in December will remain weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. If production decreases significantly, it may reach 10,000 yuan/ton; otherwise, it may fall to 7,500 yuan/ton [15]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon price has shown a large - amplitude shock. Although the production has decreased, the demand has decreased more, resulting in an oversupply situation and continuous inventory accumulation. - After the registration of the platform company, the price may be strong under the influence of positive news. Pay attention to the substantial progress of capacity storage and production control. The futures price is strongly rising and at a large premium to the spot market. Pay attention to the production - reduction amplitude and price - decline pressure [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price center of lithium carbonate has moved up, and there are more news disturbances in the market. The fundamentals remain in a situation of both supply and demand being strong. - The downstream demand is relatively optimistic, but the sustainability of the improvement in the off - season demand at the end of the year needs to be noted. The social inventory is stably decreasing, but the off - balance - sheet implicit inventory may bring pressure. - In the short term, the market may maintain a strong shock, with the main reference range of 95,000 - 100,000 yuan [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 93,222 yuan/ton, up 1.00% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium has decreased by 25 yuan/ton. - The SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price is 93,650 yuan/ton, up 0.93% from the previous day. The SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper premium has increased by 30 yuan/ton. - The SMM wet - process copper price is 93,505 yuan/ton, up 0.99% from the previous day. The SMM wet - process copper premium has decreased by 35 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In November, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1031 million tons, up 1.05% from the previous month. In October, the electrolytic copper import volume was 282,100 tons, down 15.61% from the previous month. - The import copper concentrate index is - 43.08 dollars/ton, down 0.51% from the previous week. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory is 763,900 tons, up 1.83% from the previous week. - The electrolytic copper rod - making start - up rate is 64.54%, down 1.87% from the previous week. The recycled copper rod - making start - up rate is 9.15%, down 9.14% from the previous week [1]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 23,700 yuan/ton, up 2.55% from the previous day. The SMM 0 zinc ingot (Guangdong) price is 23,620 yuan/ton, up 2.56% from the previous day. - The import loss is - 4,588 yuan/ton, down 320.15 yuan from the previous day. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.39, down 0.06 from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, the refined zinc output was 595,200 tons, down 3.56% from the previous month. In October, the refined zinc import volume was 18,800 tons, down 16.94% from the previous month, and the export volume was 8,500 tons, up 243.79% from the previous month. - The galvanized start - up rate is 58.39%, up 0.19% from the previous week. The die - cast zinc alloy start - up rate is 49.56%, down 1.52% from the previous week. The zinc oxide start - up rate is 55.67%, down 0.78% from the previous week [5]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 118,200 yuan/ton, down 0.55% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel price is 120,800 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from the previous day. - The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 5,200 yuan/ton, up 1.96% from the previous day. The 1 imported nickel price is 116,000 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day [6]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel output is 33,345 tons, down 9.38% from the previous month. The refined nickel import volume is 9,741 tons, down 65.66% from the previous month. - The SHFE inventory is 44,677 tons, up 5.10% from the previous week. The social inventory is 58,970 tons, up 3.73% from the previous week. The bonded - area inventory is 2,200 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) and 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis difference between futures and spot is 405 yuan/ton, down 13.83% from the previous day [9]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel output (43 enterprises) is 1.787 million tons, down 0.72% from the previous month. The Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel output (Qinglong) is 423,500 tons, up 0.36% from the previous month. - The stainless - steel import volume is 124,100 tons, up 3.18% from the previous month. The export volume is 358,100 tons, down 14.43% from the previous month. The net export volume is 234,000 tons, down 21.54% from the previous month [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price is 329,900 yuan/ton, up 3.09% from the previous day. The SMM 1 tin premium is - 50 yuan/ton, down 200.00% from the previous day. - The Yangtze River 1 tin price is 330,400 yuan/ton, up 3.09% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium is 17 dollars/ton, down 22.73% from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In October, the tin ore import volume was 11,632 tons, up 33.49% from the previous month. The SMM refined tin output in October was 16,090 tons, up 53.09% from the previous month. - The refined tin import volume in October was 526 tons, down 58.55% from the previous month. The export volume was 1,480 tons, down 15.33% from the previous month [11]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The SMM A00 aluminum price is 22,050 yuan/ton, up 0.73% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day. - The electrolytic aluminum import loss is - 1,977 yuan/ton, down 39.5 yuan from the previous day. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.62, up 0.01 from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - In November, the alumina output was 7.4394 million tons, down 4.44% from the previous month. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output was 3.6366 million tons, down 2.82% from the previous month. The overseas electrolytic aluminum output was 2.4992 million tons, down 3.50% from the previous month [12]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,750 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day. The SMM East - China ADC12, South - China ADC12, and Northeast ADC12 prices are all 21,750 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day. The SMM Southwest ADC12 price is 21,800 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - In November, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot output was 682,000 tons, up 5.74% from the previous month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot output was 302,700 tons, up 5.84% from the previous month. The scrap - aluminum output was 876,000 tons, up 11.45% from the previous month [13]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The price of East - China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of East - China SI4210 industrial silicon is also unchanged from the previous day. - The basis of oxygen - permeable SI5530 is 765 yuan/ton, down 16.39% from the previous day. The basis of SI4210 is 472 yuan/ton, down 26.55% from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon output is 401,700 tons, down 11.17% from the previous month. The Xinjiang industrial silicon output is 237,600 tons, up 0.83% from the previous month. The Yunnan and Sichuan industrial silicon outputs have decreased significantly [15]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feeding material is 52,300 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of N - type granular silicon is 50,000 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. - The basis of N - type silicon is - 4,890 yuan, down 41.13% from the previous day [16]. Fundamental Data - The polysilicon output in the week is 25,100 tons, down 2.71% from the previous week. The monthly polysilicon output is 114,600 tons, down 14.48% from the previous month. The polysilicon import volume is 14,000 tons, up 11.96% from the previous month, and the export volume is 15,000 tons, down 27.99% from the previous month [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 94,500 yuan/ton, up 1.07% from the previous day. The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 92,000 yuan/ton, up 1.10% from the previous day. - The SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 83,030 yuan/ton, up 0.85% from the previous day. The SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 77,530 yuan/ton, up 0.91% from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - In November, the lithium carbonate output was 53,500 tons, up 3.35% from the previous month. The battery - grade lithium carbonate output was 70,300 tons, up 2.84% from the previous month. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate output was 25,050 tons, up 4.81% from the previous month. - In November, the lithium carbonate demand was 133,451 tons, up 5.11% from the previous month