沥青期货早报-20251215

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply of asphalt has a high pressure, with the total planned production volume in December 2025 being 2.158 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.18 percentage points, and the sample enterprise output decreased by 0.59% [7]. - The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane开工率 are all at relatively low levels, and the overall demand is weak [7]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit decreased by 12.00%, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit decreased by 2.11%. The decline in crude oil prices is expected to weaken the short - term support [8]. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a discount. The social inventory is decreasing, the factory inventory is increasing, and the port inventory is decreasing. The main position is net short, and the shorts are increasing. It is expected that the asphalt 2602 contract will fluctuate in the range of 2936 - 2988 in the short term [8]. - The positive factors are that the relatively high crude oil cost provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply - side: The total planned production volume of asphalt in December 2025 is 2.158 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly capacity utilization rate is 29.9017%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises decreased by 0.59%, and the estimated maintenance volume increased by 14.29%. It is expected that the supply pressure will be reduced next week [7]. - Demand - side: The current demand of various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane开工率 are all in a relatively low state, indicating weak overall demand [7]. - Cost - side: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 361.95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.00%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 981.9371 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.11%. The decline in crude oil prices is expected to weaken the short - term support [8]. - Basis: On December 12, the Shandong spot price was 2,930 yuan/ton, and the 02 - contract basis was - 32 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 721,000 tons, a decrease of 3.22%. The factory inventory is 591,000 tons, an increase of 0.51%. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 470,000 tons, a decrease of 29.85% [8]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 02 - contract futures is below the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the shorts are increasing [8]. - Expectation: It is expected that the asphalt 2602 contract will fluctuate in the range of 2936 - 2988 in the short term [8] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on the prices, price changes, inventory, and production of various asphalt futures contracts, including the 01 - 12 contracts, as well as the prices of different types of asphalt in various regions, such as heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and North China regions [14] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which helps to analyze the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [16][17][19] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main - contract Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 asphalt contracts from 2020 to 2025, which is useful for spread trading analysis [21][22] - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The report presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025, which helps to analyze the correlation between asphalt and crude oil prices [24][25] - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [26][27][28] - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The report presents the price ratio trends of asphalt against SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [30][32] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The report shows the historical trend of the Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt price from 2020 to 2025 [33][34] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: The report shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [36][37] - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread: The report presents the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [39][40][41] - Supply - side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: The report shows the historical trend of the weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 [43][44] - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The report presents the historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [45][46] - Production: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [48][50] - Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: The report presents the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [51][53] - Refinery Asphalt Production: The report shows the historical trend of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [54][55] - Capacity Utilization: The report presents the historical trend of the weekly asphalt capacity utilization from 2021 to 2025 [57][58] - Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume: The report shows the historical trend of the estimated asphalt maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025 [59][60] - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The report presents the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [62][63][64] - Social Inventory and Factory Inventory: The report shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [66][67] - Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio: The report presents the historical trend of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [69][70] - Import and Export Situation: - Export and Import Trends: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025 [72][73] - South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend: The report presents the historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [75][76][77] - Demand - side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Production: The report shows the historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [78][79] - Apparent Consumption: The report presents the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [81][82] - Downstream Demand: - Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025 [84][85] - New Local Special - Purpose Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion: The report presents the historical trends of new local special - purpose bonds and infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 [86] - Downstream Machinery Demand: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [88][89][91] - Asphalt开工率: The report presents the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率, asphalt开工率 by use, and downstream开工率 (such as shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt开工率, road - modified asphalt开工率, and waterproofing membrane开工率) from 2019 to 2025 [93][94][96] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from September 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, export, downstream demand, and inventory data [103][104]