宏观经济周报-20251215

Economic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index has stabilized near expansion territory, indicating a recovery in economic activity[1] - The Consumer Sentiment Index remains at the upper end of the expansion range, reflecting a rebound in consumer spending[1] - The Investment Sentiment Index shows significant recovery, approaching the neutral line, supported by infrastructure and manufacturing investments[1] Inflation and Prices - November 2025 CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with core CPI rising 1.2%, indicating ongoing recovery in consumer spending[2] - Food prices have shifted from decline to increase, contributing significantly to the CPI rise[2] - November 2025 PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, but the decline in some sectors has narrowed, reflecting improvements in competition and capacity optimization[2] Global Economic Context - As of December 6, 2025, initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 236,000, the largest weekly increase since March 2020, influenced by seasonal factors[5] - The U.S. unemployment rate has increased to 4.4%, indicating a softening labor market amid rising costs and demand pressures[7] - Mexico's new tariff law, effective 2026, will impose higher tariffs on imports from China and other non-free trade agreement countries, potentially impacting trade dynamics[6]