Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The RU2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,950 - 15,350 in the short - term, and the NR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,650 in the short - term [2]. - The overall inventory in Qingdao ports continues to accumulate, with increases in both bonded and general trade warehouses. Overseas standard rubber arrivals are increasing, while mixed rubber arrivals are slightly decreasing. Downstream tire factories are cautious in restocking, with a mostly wait - and - see attitude, resulting in small overall outbound volumes [2]. - The resumption of production scheduling by previously overhauled enterprises has driven up the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. However, as the industry enters the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment pace of enterprises is slow, and most enterprises are in a state of flexible production control, which limits the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. With the continuous increase in finished product inventory, there is a possibility of individual enterprises conducting overhauls or reducing production in the later stage [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,200 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract is 12,360 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - Spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 25 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - rubber is - 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber is 2,840 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. - Positions: The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 131,752 lots, up 3,350 lots; the position of the main 20 - rubber contract is 60,954 lots, down 689 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 31,015 lots, down 3,139 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - rubber is - 11,550 lots, down 575 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts are 72,960 tons, up 15,970 tons; the 20 - rubber exchange warehouse receipts are 59,573 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Rubber Prices: The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 15,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,820 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars [2]. - Mixed Rubber Prices: The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,500 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,450 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - Synthetic Rubber Prices: The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The Shanghai rubber basis is - 250 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 730 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,927 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract is 567 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Thai Raw Material Prices: The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 58.73 Thai baht/kg, up 0.42 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets is 55.75 Thai baht/kg, down 1.4 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue is 55.25 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht [2]. - Production Profits: The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 53.8 US dollars/ton, up 10.6 US dollars [2]. - Imports: The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, up 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, down 61,100 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Tire开工率: The weekly opening rate of all - steel tires is 64.07%, up 0.57 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi - steel tires is 71.57%, up 0.65 percentage points [2]. - Inventory Days: The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 40.58 days, up 1.07 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.51 days, up 0.56 days [2]. - Tire Output: The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 12.86%, down 0.52 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.45%, down 0.43 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.76%, down 0.02 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.76%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Heavy - Truck Sales: In November 2025, the sales volume of the domestic heavy - truck market was about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of the domestic heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [2]. - Qingdao Rubber Inventory: As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,200 tons, an increase of 2.08%. The bonded area inventory was 77,500 tons, an increase of 4.88%; the general trade inventory was 421,400 tons, an increase of 1.58% [2]. - Tire Enterprise Capacity Utilization: As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points [2].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251215
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-15 08:59