铂钯金期货日报-20251215

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The restart of interest rate cuts by the Fed has pushed the prices of platinum - group metals to continue rising. The London platinum price has broken through the historical high, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum 2606 main contract has hit the daily limit, with palladium prices rising in tandem. In the medium - to long - term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the expansion of long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen energy economy. Palladium's demand outlook is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the spread of new energy vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations may support its price. Short - term correction risks should be noted due to the recent large gains in the precious metals market. The report also provides price ranges for London platinum and palladium spot and relevant futures contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 482.40, up 31.55; palladium main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 407.60, up 18.40. Platinum main contract持仓量 (daily, lots): 10387.00, down 277.00; palladium main contract持仓量 (daily, lots): 3179.00, up 90.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995): 466.85, up 21.31; Yangtze River palladium spot price: 366.00, up 2.00. Platinum main contract basis (daily, yuan/gram): - 15.55, down 41.60; palladium main contract basis (daily, yuan/gram): - 16.40 (down). Platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts): 9966.00, down 243.00; palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts): 3003.00, down 342.00 [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Total platinum supply (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 220.40, down 0.80; total palladium supply (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 293.00, down 5.00. Total platinum demand (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 261.60, up 25.60; total palladium demand (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 287.00, down 27.00 [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - Dollar index: 98.40, up 0.04; 10 - year US Treasury real yield (%): 1.93, up 0.04; VIX volatility index: 15.74, up 0.89. Multiple Fed officials have spoken. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 24.4%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 75.6%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 41.9%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 49.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 8.3%. The Bank of Japan's governor and other senior officials have repeatedly signaled support for an interest rate hike [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The Fed's restart of interest rate cuts has led to the continuous strengthening of platinum - group metal prices. The London platinum price has broken through the historical high, and the palladium price has followed the upward trend. Platinum may be supported in the medium - to long - term, while palladium's demand outlook is weakening, but its price may be supported by interest rate cut expectations [2]. 3.6 Key Attention Points - December 15, 21:30, US December New York Fed Manufacturing Index; December 15, 23:00, US December NAHB Housing Market Index; December 16, 21:30, US November Non - farm Payrolls Report [2]