瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20251215

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - New sugar from Guangxi has gradually reached sales areas, and with poor market transactions, competition among three sugar sources has negatively affected prices. As of now, in the 25/26 sugar - making season, 66 sugar mills in Guangxi have started operation, 5 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 53.75 million tons, 2.9 million tons less than last year. Next week, 4 more sugar mills are expected to start operation. In Yunnan, 26 sugar mills have started operation, 9 more than the same period last year, and over half of the sugar mills have started. Overall, the new sugar - making season is approaching the peak, supply is increasing, spot prices are weakening, and there is a lack of positive drivers. It is expected that sugar prices will fluctuate at a low level in the future [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5207 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 7; the main contract position is 429,498 hands, an increase of 12,559. The number of warehouse receipts is 611, with no change; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 68,126 hands, a decrease of 4,157. The total number of effective warehouse receipt forecasts is 1490 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4163 yuan/ton, an increase of 53; that of Thai sugar is 4184 yuan/ton, an increase of 52. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5277 yuan/ton, an increase of 69; that of Thai sugar is 5306 yuan/ton, an increase of 69. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5295 yuan/ton, with no change; in Nanning, Guangxi is 5360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10; in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60; the planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 1116.21 thousand hectares, an increase of 840.33. The cumulative national sugar production is 4.48 million tons, a decrease of 237.4; the cumulative sales of cane - sugar in Guangxi is 330.2 million tons, a decrease of 90.3; the cumulative production of cane - sugar in Yunnan is 8.94 million tons, a decrease of 593.35. The total sugar exports from Brazil are 330.2 million tons, a decrease of 90.3 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80; that of Thai sugar is 1112 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80. The price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) for Brazilian sugar is 19 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10; for Thai sugar, it is - 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 97. The monthly sugar import volume is 20 million tons, an increase of 20; the cumulative import volume is 390 million tons, an increase of 74 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 34.39 million tons; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1096.2 million tons, a decrease of 495.5 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.96%, a decrease of 7.27; that of at - the - money put options is 7.99%, a decrease of 2.16. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.54%, a decrease of 1.49; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.3%, a decrease of 0.81 [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of November 18, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 188,400 hands, a decrease of 12,227 from the previous week. Long positions were 150,467 hands, a decrease of 8019, and short positions were 338,867 hands, a decrease of 20,246. As of the week of December 10, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 44, down from 53 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 151.31 million tons, a 17.14% decrease from 182.6 million tons the previous week. Brazil exported 330.2 million tons of sugar in November, a 2.59% year - on - year decrease [2]