瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20251215

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading strategy is to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 101,060 yuan/ton, up 3,340 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 168,125 lots, up 11,607 lots; the position of the main contract is 662,185 lots, up 25,801 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 1,660 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 15,260 lots/ton, up 210 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 95,150 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 92,650 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 5,910 yuan/ton, down 2,690 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 0 US dollars/ton, down 1,170 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 10,575 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 4,058 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 53,980 tons, up 2,450 tons; the monthly import volume is 23,880.69 tons, up 4,283.79 tons; the monthly export volume is 245.91 tons, up 95.10 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries is 176,300 MWh, up 5,700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 36,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 180,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 167,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt - acid lithium is 345,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power - type): China is 148,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 159,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 39,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,880,000 vehicles, up 108,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,823,000 vehicles, up 108,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 47.48%, up 0.74%; the cumulative sales volume and year - on - year of new energy vehicles is 14,780,000 vehicles, up 3,518,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 300,000 vehicles, up 44,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume and year - on - year of new energy vehicles is 2,315,000 vehicles, up 1,174,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 51%, down 7.06; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 48.11%, up 0.45 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 124,221 lots, down 7; the total put position is 97,390 lots, up 8,604; the total put - call ratio is 78.4%, up 6.9304%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.35%, up 0.0003% [2] 3.7 Industry News - The lithium iron phosphate industry is experiencing a wave of price hikes, and industry associations are promoting solutions; in November 2025, the domestic power battery loading volume was 93.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 11.2% and a year - on - year increase of 39.2%; multiple departments have deployed 2026 key tasks; the National Development and Reform Work Conference emphasized measures for investment, consumption, etc.; at the 2025 - 2026 China Economic Annual Conference, relevant leaders said that the economy is better than expected and proposed 2026 policies [2] 3.8 Market Analysis - The lithium carbonate main contract oscillated strongly, with an increase of 1.4% at the close. The position increased month - on - month, the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, and the basis weakened compared with the previous day. The raw material price was supported by the strong futures market, the supply increased steadily, the demand was resilient, and the option market sentiment was bullish with a slight increase in implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD had double lines above the 0 - axis and the red bars expanded [2]