瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20251215

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides investment suggestions for the aluminum industry, recommending light - position short - term long trades on dips for alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and cast aluminum, while emphasizing the need to control trading rhythm and risk [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Spreads: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,920 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,537 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote was 2,875 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars. The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts for Shanghai aluminum was - 65 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; for alumina, it was - 15 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan [2]. - Positions and Inventories: The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 20,430 hands to 294,373 hands; for alumina, it decreased by 35,592 hands to 205,975 hands. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 900 tons to 519,650 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory on the SHFE decreased by 3,635 tons to 119,995 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Aluminum Prices: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 21,710 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 22,070 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [2]. - Basis and Premiums: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 580 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 210 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan. The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium was - 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium was - 32.55 dollars/ton, down 5.87 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina: The alumina production in November was 786.50 million tons, down 13.40 million tons; the demand for alumina (for electrolytic aluminum) was 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of alumina was 86.51%, down 0.45%; the supply - demand balance was 37.98 million tons, down 8.87 million tons [2]. - Aluminum Scrap: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 17,250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in Shandong metal scrap, it was 16,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. China's imports of aluminum scrap increased by 2,945.61 tons to 158,360.01 tons, and exports decreased by 36.08 tons to 32.46 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Electrolytic Aluminum: The import volume of primary aluminum increased by 4,462 tons to 248,261.37 tons, and the export volume decreased by 4,396.36 tons to 24,573.56 tons. The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 1 million tons to 4,524.20 million tons, and the operating rate was 98.21%, down 0.03% [2]. - Aluminum Products: The output of aluminum products was 569.40 million tons, down 20.60 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased by 7 million tons to 57 million tons. The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy increased by 0.74 million tons to 3.09 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The national real estate climate index was 91.90, down 0.52. The automobile production was 351.90 million vehicles, up 24 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 13.76%, up 0.53%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 12.25%, up 0.43%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main at - the - money IV was 13.69%, up 0.0257; the call - put ratio was 1.72, up 0.0321 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - China's November financial data showed that RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan in the first 11 months, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 33.39 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's total. At the end of November, M2 increased by 8% year - on - year, M1 by 4.9%, the stock of social financing by 8.5%, and the balance of RMB loans by 6.4% [2]. - Multiple Fed officials spoke. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said inflation was no longer the biggest enemy, and the risk of employment decline was more worrying. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he voted against a rate cut on Wednesday, waiting for more data, and expected more rate cuts next year than the median forecast [2]. - The National Development and Reform Work Conference emphasized strengthening economic monitoring and early - warning analysis, promoting investment to stop falling and stabilize, and boosting consumption with practical and new measures [2]. - At the 2025 - 2026 China Economic Annual Conference, Han Wenxiu said that China's main economic indicators were better than expected, and the economic aggregate was expected to reach about 140 trillion yuan this year. In 2026, efforts would be made to promote the synchronous growth of residents' income and the economy [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - The alumina main contract was oscillating strongly, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply of bauxite was expected to gradually increase, and the price of domestic bauxite might decline slightly. The domestic alumina production capacity and operating rate might decline slightly, while the demand from electrolytic aluminum plants remained stable. It was recommended to take light - position short - term long trades on dips [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - The Shanghai aluminum main contract was oscillating weakly, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The profit of aluminum plants was good, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity continued to grow slightly. Although it was the traditional off - season, the demand for downstream aluminum products remained resilient. The option market sentiment was bullish, and it was recommended to take light - position short - term long trades on dips [2]. 3.10 Cast Aluminum View Summary - The cast aluminum main contract first fell and then rose, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the production of cast aluminum might decline. The demand from downstream enterprises was cautious. It was recommended to take light - position short - term long trades on dips [2].