瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20251215

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of domestic methanol production enterprises may accumulate in the short - term due to sufficient supply in the main production areas and some large methanol plants increasing production, despite a slight decrease in inventory last week. The port inventory decreased significantly last week, and future attention should be paid to the unloading of foreign vessels. The MTO industry's operating rate is expected to decline. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2070 - 2170 in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2074 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 370491 lots, down 111898 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 159057 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8623, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2095 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1960 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton. The East - Northwest price difference is 130 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 21 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the Chinese main port is 245 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 317 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 254 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is - 72 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.1 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.13 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 83.06 tons, down 10.82 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 40.38 tons, down 0.68 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 19.56 yuan/ton, down 6.15 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 161.26 tons, up 18.57 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 352800 tons, down 8700 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 89.81%, up 0.72% [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 41.49%, down 1.42%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 8.98%, up 1.1%. The operating rate of acetic acid is 73.89%, up 4.27%; the operating rate of MTBE is 69.75%, down 0.22%. The operating rate of olefins is 89.95%, down 0.87%. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 918 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 18.54%, down 1.75%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 0.55%. The 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 17.98%, down 0.57%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.94%, down 0.57% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 10, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.28 tons, down 0.87 tons or 2.40% from the previous period; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 20.75 tons, down 3.22 tons or 13.45% from the previous period. As of December 10, the total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 123.44 tons, down 11.5 tons from the previous data. As of December 11, the output of domestic methanol increased as the production capacity loss from maintenance and production cuts was less than the output from capacity recovery [2]