2025-12-15 09:46Market Review - The food and beverage sector's ETFs showed significant divergence in November, with the wine ETF (512690.SH) and consumer ETF (159928.SZ) declining by -0.85% and -0.24% respectively, while the Hang Seng Consumer ETF (513970.SH) and another Hang Seng Consumer ETF (159699.SZ) increased by +1.78% and +1.45% respectively [2][12] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.67% in November, while the food and beverage sector rose by 0.84%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite by 2.52 percentage points [3][22] - The retail sales growth in October was 2.90%, marking a decline since May, with the food and beverage sector showing signs of recovery in certain sub-segments [4][32] Industry Dynamics - The white wine sector is currently in a downturn, with prices continuing to decline due to increased e-commerce platform subsidies and weak channel confidence, indicating a need for careful observation of inventory and pricing trends as the market approaches the 2026 Spring Festival [4][36] - The beer sector is also entering a slow season, with a focus on raw material pricing and new channel developments that could impact product structure [4][35] - The snack sector is highlighted as having strong supply chains that can optimize products and resonate with channels, making it a key area for potential growth [4][35] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "stronger than the market" outlook, emphasizing the food and beverage sector's importance in domestic demand recovery, supported by improving policy expectations [5][7] - Specific ETFs such as the Hang Seng Consumer ETF (159699.SZ) and the wine ETF (512690.SH) are recommended for capturing new consumption trends and potential rebounds in the sector [7][5] Sub-sector Performance - The processed food sub-sector saw the highest increase in November at +9.11%, while the soft drink sub-sector experienced the largest decline at -4.07% [25][22] - Year-to-date, the health products sub-sector has shown the highest growth at +10.80%, while the beer sub-sector has the largest decline at -11.18% [25][22] Macro Data Tracking - Retail sales in urban areas showed a year-on-year growth of 2.70% in October, while rural areas saw a growth of 4.10%, indicating a divergence in consumer spending trends [32][33] - The consumer confidence index fell to 89.40 in October, reflecting a decrease in consumer sentiment [33][34]