公募基金权益指数跟踪周报（2025.12.08-2025.12.12）：政策预期兑现，把握结构机会-20251215

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (2025.12.08 - 2025.12.12), the market showed a high - opening and low - closing trend. There is still a lack of a strong main line in the market. Externally - oriented sectors are stronger than domestically - oriented sectors, but the former's stock prices are at a high level with intensified gaming, and the latter lacks continuous data improvement and reversal momentum. After multiple macro - events, the market may enter a volatile consolidation phase with limited index - level opportunities [3][12]. - Overseas, short - term macro - positive factors being exhausted may pressure high - valuation and crowded AI assets, especially considering the possible interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan next week. However, the Fed's restart of quantitative easing provides re - inflation guidance for the US economy, and the prospect of global manufacturing recovery is still worthy of attention [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Observation - Equity Market Review and Observation - Market Performance: Last week, among major broad - based indexes, the BeiZheng 50, ChiNext Index, and KeChuang 50 led the gains, while the Micro - cap Stock Index, Dividend Index, and Shanghai Composite 50 led the losses. Market liquidity showed a structural shortage, with technology sectors such as computing power being relatively dominant. At the end of the year, funds further concentrated on leading tech stocks. In terms of themes, commercial aerospace, cross - strait integration, and some newly - listed stocks were active. The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market was 1938.5 billion yuan, showing a month - on - month increase [12]. - Market Structure: Externally - oriented sectors (e.g., AI, non - ferrous metals) are stronger than domestically - oriented sectors (e.g., real estate, consumption). The former's stock prices are at a high level with intensified gaming, and the latter lacks continuous data improvement and reversal momentum [3][12]. - Macro - events: - Central Economic Work Conference: Held from December 10th to 11th, it continued the general tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability", focused more on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement as well as policy coordination. Fiscal policy is "more proactive", and monetary policy is "moderately loose" [5][13]. - Fed Rate Cut: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the December FOMC meeting, the third cut this year. After the cut, the market focused on the uncertainty of the future interest rate cut path, which may lead to some funds taking profits and rotating from high - valuation tech stocks, intensifying market differentiation [5][13]. - Bank of Japan Rate Hike: The market's expectation of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan has significantly increased. Although last year's hawkish rate hike had an impact on the global market, this time the expectation has been well - communicated, and the market has priced it relatively fully, so the impact on the global market is expected to be relatively limited [5][14]. 2. Active Equity Fund Index Performance Tracking - Overall Performance: | Index Classification | Last Week | Last Month | Since the Beginning of This Year | Since Inception | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Strategy - Theme | Active Stock Fund Preferred | 0.65% | - 0.46% | 39.07% | 40.20% | | Investment Style | Value Stock Fund Preferred | - 1.14% | - 2.33% | 18.76% | 18.85% | | | Balanced Stock Fund Preferred | 0.28% | - 0.98% | 30.74% | 27.88% | | | Growth Stock Fund Preferred | 1.57% | 0.60% | 54.47% | 40.59% | | Industry - Theme | Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.83% | - 1.84% | 36.66% | 18.38% | | | Consumption Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.54% | - 2.37% | 11.10% | 3.95% | | | Technology Stock Fund Preferred | 2.40% | 0.57% | 48.07% | 50.39% | | | High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred | 3.10% | - 0.89% | 35.14% | 28.62% | | | Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.09% | 0.53% | 27.27% | 18.28% | [15] - Index Positioning and Benchmarks: - Active Stock Fund Preferred: Selects active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability in value, balanced, and growth styles, with the style distribution roughly balanced according to the CSI Active Stock - type Fund Index. The performance benchmark is the Active Stock Fund (930980.CSI) [16][17]. - Value Stock Fund Preferred: Includes deep - value and quality - value styles. Selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles to form the index. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [20]. - Balanced Stock Fund Preferred: Fund managers of this style balance stock valuation and growth. Selects 10 relatively balanced and value - growth style funds to form the index. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [22]. - Growth Stock Fund Preferred: Aims to seize the opportunities of performance and valuation double - click during a company's high - growth stage. Selects 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles to form the index. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth (H30355.CSI) [24][25]. - Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index. Constructs an evaluation system in the sample that meets the industry theme, with 15 funds selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical - theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [25][29]. - Consumption Stock Fund Preferred: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of relevant CITIC consumption - related indexes. Constructs an evaluation system in the sample that meets the industry theme, with 10 funds selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the consumption - theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [29]. - Technology Stock Fund Preferred: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of relevant CITIC technology - related indexes. Constructs an evaluation system in the sample that meets the industry theme, with 10 funds selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the technology - theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [35]. - High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of relevant CITIC high - end manufacturing - related indexes. Constructs an evaluation system in the sample that meets the industry theme, with 10 funds selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing - theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [37]. - Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of relevant CITIC cyclical - related indexes. Constructs an evaluation system in the sample that meets the industry theme, with 5 funds selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the cyclical - theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [37][38].