建信期货集运指数日报-20251216

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: December 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Core Viewpoints - The spot SCFIS index rebounded slightly and stabilized this week. Shipping companies continued to raise prices, boosting the market's sentiment. MSC followed Maersk to announce a price increase for January quotes. The main shipping companies have formed a trend of joint price increases, which strongly supports the market's expectation of price increases before the Spring Festival. There may be an incentive game for the pre - Spring Festival shipping season. It's hard to prove whether the EC2602 contract is overvalued in the short term, and the cost - performance of short - selling is not high. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the off - season April contract being overvalued and the positive spread trading opportunity between EC2602 and EC2604 [8] Report Content Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Conditions: The SCFIS index rebounded slightly and stabilized this week. Shipping companies continued to raise prices. MSC followed Maersk to raise the January quote for European routes to $3700, higher than the $3500 announced on December 15. The current prices of major shipping companies are around $3000 - $3500 in the second half of December and $3500 - $3700 in the first half of January [8] - Operation Suggestions: The main shipping companies have a joint price - raising trend, which supports the pre - Spring Festival price increase expectation. It's difficult to prove the overvaluation of EC2602 in the short term, so short - selling is not cost - effective. Attention should be paid to the possible overvaluation of the April contract and the positive spread trading opportunity between EC2602 and EC2604 [8] 2. Industry News - Overall Market Situation: From December 8 to 12, China's export container transport demand was generally stable. The spot freight rates of some major ocean routes increased due to the year - end contract - signing season, and the comprehensive index rose. On December 12, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1506.46 points, up 7.8% from the previous period [9] - Route - Specific Situations: - European Route: Economic data in Europe was average. Due to the mid - month price increase announcements of some shipping merchants, the spot booking price increased. On December 12, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European base ports was $1538/TEU, up 9.9% [9] - Mediterranean Route: The freight rate increase was higher than that in the European market. On December 12, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean base ports was $2737/TEU, up 19.0% [9] - North American Route: Affected by the Fed's possible interest rate cut and rising inflation expectations, the US economic situation declined. The transport demand did not improve, but the spot booking price increased due to the year - end price announcements. On December 12, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East base ports were $1780/FEU and $2652/FEU respectively, up 14.8% and 14.6% [9][10] - Shipping Company Price - Adjustment News: On December 15, 2025, many shipping companies such as MSC and CMA CGM announced price increases for multiple international routes. Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd also announced increases in peak - season surcharges for some routes [10] 3. Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices: - SCFIS Index: On December 15, 2025, the SCFIS for European routes (base ports) was 1510.56, up 0.1% from December 8; the SCFIS for US West routes (base ports) was 924.36, down 3.8% [12] - Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market: The report provides trading data for multiple contracts on December 15, including EC2512, EC2602, etc., covering opening prices, closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and changes in open interests [6] - Shipping - Related Data Charts: The report includes charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European base port freight rates, etc. [16][20]