建信期货豆粕日报-20251216

1. Reported Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term external market may face some pressure, but the neutral ending inventory supports that the decline will not be significant, and it is expected to operate at a narrow low level. The rebound of soybean meal futures is short - cycle. Considering the abundant supply in most regions of the spot market, the supply exceeds demand, and there is no obvious potential positive factor outside, one can try short positions on rallies in the short - term, and treat it as a narrow - range shock in the medium - term [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The US soybean futures contracts in the external market fluctuated today, with the main contract approaching 1080 cents. The USDA's December monthly supply - demand report had few highlights, and the estimates of US soybean yield, exports, ending inventory, and South American production remained the same as in November. The US market is worried about China's procurement progress. There are rumors that China's full - scale procurement of 1.2 billion tons of US soybeans before January may be postponed to February. Argentina plans to lower the soybean export tax. South American new crops have no positive news. Brazil has basically completed most of the sowing, and it is expected to have above - average rainfall in the next two weeks, which is conducive to a bumper harvest. Argentina is a bit dry but is still in the middle and late sowing stage. Last week, imported soybeans were auctioned, with a total transaction of more than 390,000 tons, an average price of about 3,935 yuan, a significant premium over the reserve price, and a transaction ratio of about 77% [6] - Operation Suggestions: The rebound of soybean meal futures is short - cycle. Considering the abundant supply in most regions of the spot market, the supply exceeds demand, and there is no obvious potential positive factor outside, one can try short positions on rallies in the short - term, and treat it as a narrow - range shock in the medium - term [6] 3.2 Industry News - In the 2025/26 season, the soybean planting area in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, has reached 76% of the estimated 6.74 million hectares, lower than 80% in the same period last year and the historical average of 84% due to dry weather during the planting period. However, the average yield per unit area is still expected to be 3,180 kg/ha, a significant increase compared to 2,009 kg/ha in the previous drought - affected season. As of December 11, the soybean planting rate in Argentina in the 2025/26 season was 58%, up from 49% last week and lower than 66% in the same period last year [7][8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract of soybean meal, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][15]