建信期货多晶硅日报-20251216

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: December 16, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook - Market performance: The price of the main polysilicon contract rose and then fell. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 58,030 yuan/ton, with a 3.61% increase. The trading volume was 314,139 lots, and the open interest was 142,844 lots, with a net increase of 16,408 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 increased by 11,262 lots, and the net short positions of the top 20 increased by 10,425 lots [4] - Spot price: The transaction price range of polysilicon n-type re-feeding material was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous period [4] - Future outlook: The fundamentals are weak, but it is not the main line of futures game. The storage platform provides more policy imagination space, and long funds are more sensitive. Unconfirmed news says that the production capacity will be reduced from 3.2 million tons to less than 1.5 million tons. The annual demand is expected to be less than 1.2 million tons in the annual report, and the production capacity will be effectively utilized. However, it is unconfirmed and there are no specific details. The price center is expected to move up significantly, but in the short term, it is still facing the negative feedback of weak and further shrinking downstream to drive the spot price to break through 60,000 yuan. The futures price has risen and then fallen continuously, and it is expected to run cautiously and strongly [4] Group 3: Market News - On December 15, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,640 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - Xinjiang Jinnuo New Energy Industry Development Co., Ltd.'s "Jinnuo" brand and Xinjiang Eastern Hope New Energy Co., Ltd.'s "Eastern Hope" brand have been added as registered brands for polysilicon futures, effective from the date of the announcement [5] - A polysilicon production capacity integration and acquisition platform named Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. was established on December 9, 2025, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan [5]