建信期货棉花日报-20251216

Report Overview - Report Date: December 16, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The trading center of Zhengzhou cotton continues to move upward. The short - term market focuses on the 2026/27 Xinjiang cotton target price area control policy, and Zhengzhou cotton maintains a relatively strong trend with the pressure level gradually moving up [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Domestic Spot Market: The latest cotton price index for grade 328 is 15,060 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The transaction price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang for the 2025/26 season is around 14,750 (gross weight). The base price for low - basis transactions of the same quality is CF01 + 800 - 900, and most base price quotes are still above 900 [7]. - Domestic Downstream Market: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average with few new orders, only high - count yarns have good sales. The price of pure - cotton yarn remains stable for now, some large factories may offer significant discounts to clear inventory. Xinjiang textile enterprises barely maintain profits, while inland textile enterprises continue to lose money. The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market has improved locally but remains dull overall. Orders are turning over quickly, but shipments have not increased much [7]. - Overseas Market: The US Department of Agriculture's December global cotton supply - demand report shows a slight decline in both production and consumption, and a slight accumulation of global ending stocks. US cotton production has increased slightly, and inventory accumulation is the main trend. Future attention should be paid to the sales progress of US cotton and changes in CFTC positions [8]. - Domestic Market Data: As of December 14, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume nationwide is 5.3736 million tons. The commercial inventory is in the seasonal accumulation stage, reaching 4.6836 million tons at the end of November. The current operating rate has decreased slightly, the marginal deterioration of textile enterprises' profits and cash flow is small, and the finished - product inventory pressure is still not large. In November, the domestic revenue from clothing, footwear, and textiles was 154.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, indicating that domestic demand support still exists [8]. 3.2 Industry News - In November 2025, China's revenue from clothing, footwear, and textiles was 154.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative revenue was 1.3597 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%, with the growth rate unchanged from the previous month [9]. - As of the week ending November 18, according to CFTC data, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton futures funds were 73,671 (+4,533) contracts, turning from a decrease to an increase; the short positions were 117,858 (- 870) contracts, decreasing for the fifth consecutive week; the total ICE positions were 279,627 (-16,722) contracts, decreasing for the second consecutive week. The net long ratio was - 15.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.8 percentage points [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including cotton futures prices, cotton basis changes, spreads between different cotton futures contracts, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipt volumes, and exchange rates (USD/CNY and USD/INR), with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][20][28][30].