建信期货纸浆日报-20251216

Report Information - Report Type: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: December 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Liu Youran, Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Feng Zeren [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The pulp market shows a situation of strong pulp and weak paper. Recently, the excessive increase in raw material prices has increased the processing pressure on downstream paper mills, and the cultural paper market price is still under pressure. In the short term, funds are gambling on the pricing of old and new warehouse receipts, and it is recommended to wait and see [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 05 contract was 5,548 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,572 yuan/ton, a overall increase of 0.43%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,850 - 6,300 yuan/ton, a price increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price. Among them, the quotation of Shandong Arauco Silver Star was 5,550 - 5,580 yuan/ton [7] - Arauco's December pulp export quotation: the price of softwood pulp Silver Star increased by 20 US dollars/ton to 700 US dollars/ton; the price of unbleached pulp Venus remained flat at 620 US dollars/ton; the price of hardwood pulp Star increased by 20 US dollars/ton to 570 US dollars/ton. According to PPPC, in October, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's top 20 pulp-producing countries decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, with softwood pulp down 7.1% and hardwood pulp down 1.9%. Shipments to the Chinese market decreased significantly year-on-year. According to Europulp data, in October 2025, the total inventory of wood pulp in European ports decreased by 10.2% month-on-month and 6.5% year-on-year. In November 2025, the total pulp imports were 3.246 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 24% and a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. As of December 11, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 1.9817 million tons, a decrease of 3.00% from the previous week [8] 2. Industry News - On December 11th, Suzano's board of directors approved a capital increase plan of 5 billion Brazilian reals, which was achieved by capitalizing the remaining capital increase reserve and part of the investment reserve without issuing new shares. After this capital increase, the company's share capital increased to 24.27 billion Brazilian reals, with a total of more than 1.26 billion shares. At the same time, the pulp producer released its latest cost estimate for its pulp business in 2027, which considered the expected currency adjustment next year, the change in the inflation rate in 2025, and the adjustment related to the previous scenario [9] - On December 11th, according to the previous project announcement of Nine Dragons Paper, in order to further improve the product raw material structure, it plans to carry out technological transformation on the existing project at the Beihai base, and build a 800,000-ton unbleached chemical pulp production line, a 500,000-ton kraft linerboard production line, and supporting alkali recovery systems (including lime kilns), environmental protection supporting projects, etc. After the expansion and renovation, the newly added unbleached chemical pulp will replace part of the waste paper raw materials of the existing papermaking lines, produce higher-quality papermaking products that better meet market demand, achieve the balance of pulp and paper in the whole plant, and lay a foundation for expanding high-end paper types [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price of imported bleached softwood pulp in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot-futures price differences, softwood-hardwood price differences, inter-period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, copperplate paper and offset paper prices and price differences, white cardboard and whiteboard paper prices and price differences, and the US dollar to RMB exchange rate. The data sources are mainly Wind and Zhuochuang Information [7][15][24]