有色套利早报-20251216

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and spot - futures arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 16, 2025, to help investors find potential arbitrage opportunities 3. Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: Spot price is 92,270 (domestic) and 11,680 (LME) with a ratio of 8.05; March price is 92,490 (domestic) and 11,685 (LME) with a ratio of 7.91. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.01 with a profit of - 1,177.97, and spot export profit is 635.68 [1] - Zinc: Spot price is 23,460 (domestic) and 3,122 (LME) with a ratio of 7.51; March price is 23,470 (domestic) and 3,154 (LME) with a ratio of 5.40. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.43 with a profit of - 2,851.84 [1] - Aluminum: Spot price is 21,710 (domestic) and 2,838 (LME) with a ratio of 7.65; March price is 21,920 (domestic) and 2,883 (LME) with a ratio of 7.58. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.32 with a profit of - 1,913.48 [1] - Nickel: Spot price is 117,850 (domestic) and 14,395 (LME) with a ratio of 8.19. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.10 with a profit of - 1,653.85 [1] - Lead: Spot price is 16,975 (domestic) and 1,919 (LME) with a ratio of 8.84; March price is 17,030 (domestic) and 1,971 (LME) with a ratio of 11.87. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.66 with a profit of 349.88 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: The spreads between different months and the spot month are - 1,620, - 1,530, - 1,470, - 1,510, while the theoretical spreads are 572, 1,042, 1,521, 2,000 respectively [4] - Zinc: The spreads between different months and the spot month are - 155, - 115, - 120, - 95, while the theoretical spreads are 221, 348, 475, 602 respectively [4] - Aluminum: The spreads between different months and the spot month are - 200, - 155, - 115, - 80, while the theoretical spreads are 221, 344, 466, 589 respectively [4] - Lead: The spreads between different months and the spot month are - 40, - 20, - 15, 25, while the theoretical spreads are 210, 317, 423, 529 respectively [4] - Nickel: The spreads between different months and the spot month are - 860, - 650, - 400, - 160 [4] - Tin: The 5 - 1 spread is 1,170 with a theoretical spread of 6,738 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts to the spot are 1,775 and 155, while the theoretical spreads are 834 and 1,108 respectively [4] - Zinc: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts to the spot are 125 and - 30, while the theoretical spreads are 198 and 334 respectively [4] Cross - Market Ratio Comparison - The cross - market ratios of copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, and nickel are presented, and the import and export profits are calculated based on the equilibrium ratios [1][3] Cross - Period Spread Comparison - The actual spreads and theoretical spreads between different months and the spot month for copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin are compared [4] Spot - Futures Spread Comparison - The actual spreads and theoretical spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot for copper and zinc are compared [4] Cross - Market and Cross - Exchange Ratio Comparison - The cross - market ratios of copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, and nickel in domestic and LME markets are compared, and the import and export profits are calculated [1][3] Cross - Period and Spot - Futures Arbitrage Opportunities - By comparing the actual spreads and theoretical spreads in cross - period and spot - futures arbitrage, potential arbitrage opportunities are analyzed [4]