LPG早报-20251216

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Middle East supply is tight, and prices are unlikely to drop significantly in winter; the domestic market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent start - up of PDH under high costs and the situation of factory - warehouse warrants [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - Domestic Civil Gas Prices: On Monday, the price in East China was 4413 (-6), in Shandong was 4460 (+30), and in South China was 4460 (+40). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4550 (-10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 24 [4] - PG Futures: The PG futures price dropped due to falling oil prices, PDH shutdown news, and an increase in warrants. The basis was 265 (+122), the 01 - 02 spread was 84 (+5), and the 03 - 04 spread was - 223 (-12). The number of warrants was 5476 lots (+865) [4] - External Paper Goods: The external paper goods first rose and then fell. The FEI and CP spreads strengthened, while the MB spread weakened; the oil - gas ratio declined. The PG - CP spread was 71 (-28), and the PG - FEI spread was 65 (-14). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened [4] Market Conditions and Profits - Arrival and Inventory: The arrival volume increased by 12.25%, and the port inventory increased by 3.22%. The external release increased slightly by 1.3%, and the refinery storage capacity increased slightly by 0.27% [4] - Profit Conditions: The spot and futures profits of PDH weakened; the alkylation unit deteriorated; the MTBE profit fluctuated. The chemical demand had poor profits but strong start - up, with the PDH start - up rate at 72.87% (+2.65pct) [4]