农产品早报-20251216

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, the spot is expected to remain strong before the channel inventory accumulates. In the long - term, if downstream demand weakens seasonally and middlemen release stocks, prices may decline [3]. - Starch: In the short - term, prices are expected to be stable due to seasonal consumption and raw material supply constraints. In the long - term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor for price trends [3]. - Cotton: Low initial inventory offsets yield increases. With expanding textile production, good profits, and favorable tariff policies, long - term demand is expected to improve, making it suitable for long - term long positions [8]. - Eggs: The inflection point of inventory has emerged. If older hens are culled before Laba, it will benefit egg prices in the second quarter [12]. - Apples: National cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. The market has a shortage of high - quality goods. The futures market may show a near - strong and far - weak pattern [16]. - Pigs: Spot prices are strong on weekends. There is an expectation of increased supply and demand before the Spring Festival. Pay attention to the sustainability of the price rebound and factors that may cause expectation differences [16]. - Sugar: Domestic new sugar supply is increasing, and spot weakness drives the futures down. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, prices may decline [5]. 3. Content Summaries by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From December 9 - 15, 2025, the price in Changchun remained unchanged at 2160, while that in Jinzhou increased by 20 to 2270. The starch processing profit increased by 2 to - 21 [2]. - Market Analysis: Corn spot shows a differentiated trend. In the short - term, the supply is expected to be strong; in the long - term, prices may decline if demand weakens and stocks are released. Starch prices are expected to be stable in the short - term and depend on downstream consumption in the long - term [3]. Sugar - Price Data: From December 9 - 15, 2025, the spot price in Liuzhou decreased by 10 to 5450, and the import profit from Thailand increased by 38 [5]. - Market Analysis: Domestic new sugar supply is increasing, causing spot and futures prices to decline. In the long - term, global market conditions will affect prices [5]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From December 9 - 15, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 60 to 14690, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 63 to - 434 [8]. - Market Analysis: Low initial inventory and positive factors such as production expansion and tariff reduction are expected to improve demand next year [8]. Eggs - Price Data: From December 9 - 15, 2025, the price in Hebei remained at 3.02, and the base difference decreased by 20 to 490 [12]. - Market Analysis: The inflection point of inventory has appeared. Culling older hens before Laba may benefit second - quarter prices [12]. Apples - Price Data: From December 9 - 15, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900 [15][16]. - Market Analysis: National cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. The futures market may show a near - strong and far - weak pattern [16]. Pigs - Price Data: From December 9 - 15, 2025, the price in Henan Kaifeng increased by 0.05 to 11.43, and the base difference increased by 70 to 125 [16]. - Market Analysis: Spot prices are strong on weekends. Pay attention to the sustainability of the rebound and factors that may cause expectation differences [16].