集运早报-20251216

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 12 - contract follows the delivery logic. P1 is announced as 1510.56 points (lower than expected), and P2 and P3 are expected to be between 1700 - 1750 points [3]. - The valuation of the 02 - contract is moderately high. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and follow the spot price trend later. The current spot market is strong and recovering. Historically, the freight rate peaks usually occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (corresponding to mid - to late January 2026). However, the high shipping capacity in January 2026 may suppress the peak. At the current valuation, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - The short - term downside space of the 04 - contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities when the 04 - contract may rise following the near - month contracts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - Closing Price and Changes: EC2512 closed at 1649.8 with a - 0.01% change; EC2602 at 1746.0 with a 4.06% change; EC2604 at 1149.7 with a 3.95% change; EC2606 at 1306.7 with a 3.64% change; EC2608 at 1479.9 with a 3.37% change; EC2610 at 1053.8 with a 2.31% change [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of EC2512 was 274, and the open interest was 2724 with a change of - 223; for EC2602, the trading volume was 28275, and the open interest was 33065 with a change of 1401; for EC2604, the trading volume was 7432, and the open interest was 19657 with a change of - 276; for EC2606, the trading volume was 6/9 (unclear), and the open interest was 2335 with a change of - 20; for EC2608, the trading volume was 402, and the open interest was 1441 with a change of - 114; for EC2610, the trading volume was 1000, and the open interest was 4739 with a change of 157 [2]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: EC2512 - 2504 was 500.1 with a day - on - day change of - 43.9 and a week - on - week change of - 65.6; EC2512 - 2602 was - 96.2 with a day - on - day change of - 68.4 and a week - on - week change of - 144.9; EC2502 - 2604 was 596.3 with a day - on - day change of 24.5 and a week - on - week change of 79.3 [2]. Spot Market - Spot Indexes: The SCFIS (European Line) on 2025/12/15 was 1510.56 points with a 0.10% change from the previous period. The SCFI (European Line) on 2025/12/12 was 1538 dollars/TEU with a 9.86% change; the CCFI was 1470.55 points with a 1.59% change; the NCFI was 1064.13 points with a 9.98% change [2]. - Shipping Company Quotes: In Week51, MSK opened at 2400 (a 200 increase from the previous week), MSC and OA quoted 2600 - 2700, and PA quoted 2400 dollars. The current central price was 1760 dollars, equivalent to about 1760 points on the futures. In Week52, MSK opened at 2300 (a 100 decrease from the previous week), and the other companies mainly followed Week51's quotes. In January, MSK and MSC announced price increases to 3500 and 3700 dollars respectively. On Monday, MSC opened at 2864 dollars (a 200 increase from the previous week), equivalent to 2000 points on the futures [4].