大越期货油脂早报-20251216

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk is El Niño weather [5] 3. Summary by Oil Type Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less than expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase. Entering the production - reduction season later, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8300, with a basis of 360, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, a 20,000 - ton increase from the previous 1.16 million tons, and a 11.7% increase year - on - year [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil (Y2605) is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7700 - 8100 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, with less than expected production cuts. Entering the production - increase season later, the supply of palm oil will increase [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8540, with a basis of 48, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, a 10,000 - ton increase from the previous 570,000 tons, and a 34.1% decrease year - on - year [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil (P2605) is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8300 - 8700 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to the above two oils, the MPOB report is neutral, with less than expected production cuts. Entering the production - increase season later, the supply of palm oil will increase [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9800, with a basis of 604, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, a 10,000 - ton increase from the previous 550,000 tons, and a 3.2% increase year - on - year [4] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have turned to short positions [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil (OI2605) is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9000 - 9400 [4] 4. Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: The US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - 利空: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]