大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251216

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: December 16, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to be volatile today. The fundamentals are overall bearish with oversupply, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand [4]. - The PP market is also expected to be volatile today. The fundamentals are bearish with oversupply, although the rising propane price affects the market. The industrial inventory is neutral and downstream demand is weakening [6]. LLDPE Summary Fundamental Analysis - Macro: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan from early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pausing the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices declined, stabilizing coal - based production profits. The demand for agricultural films is stable, while the demand for packaging films has weakened after the peak season [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 23, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.4%, considered neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 508,000 tons (+11,000), considered neutral [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The main position of LLDPE is net long, with a reduction in long positions, considered bullish [4]. Supply - Demand Factors - Bullish: Cost support [5]. - Bearish: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and a large number of new production capacities in the fourth quarter [5]. Main Logic - Oversupply and domestic macro - policies are the main factors [5]. PP Summary Fundamental Analysis - Macro: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan from early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pausing the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices declined, stabilizing coal - based production profits, while PDH profits continued to decline due to the strong propane price. The demand for plastic woven products has fallen into the off - season, while the demand for pipes is fair [6]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 4, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.1%, considered neutral [6]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 537,000 tons (-28,000), considered neutral [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - Main Position: The main position of PP is net short, with a reduction in short positions, considered bearish [6]. Supply - Demand Factors - Bullish: Cost support [7]. - Bearish: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and a large number of new production capacities in the fourth quarter [7]. Main Logic - Oversupply and domestic macro - policies are the main factors [7]. Market Data Spot and Futures Prices - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 6580 (+40). The prices of the 05, L01, L05, and L09 contracts are 6557, 6522, 6557, and 6583 respectively, with price changes [8]. - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 6250 (unchanged). The prices of the 05, PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts are 6254, 6178, 6254, and 6277 respectively, with price changes [8]. Inventory Data - LLDPE: The warehouse receipt is 11,332 (unchanged), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 508,000 tons, and the social inventory is 457,000 tons [8]. - PP: The warehouse receipt is 15,747 (unchanged), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 537,000 tons, and the social inventory is 315,000 tons [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rate [13]. Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rate [15].